Filter by Categories
Watch Series
The Great Game
Daily Post
Steno Signals
Free Content
Emerging Markets
Video

Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity

Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what's on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet... Read this week's Macro Nugget below
2023-10-10

The central banks that accurately anticipated the post-inflation wave, or perhaps didn’t underestimate its magnitude, were those in commodity-intensive emerging markets. They promptly felt the impact of rising prices on their domestic products.

We had also predicted that these same emerging markets would be the first to identify the subsequent disinflation wave we’ve observed in 2023. Despite the myriad of PhDs at the Fed, they somehow overlooked the signs in 2021 and maintained a loose monetary policy.

To give the Fed some credit, markets were largely asleep at the wheel too until 2022…

For the complete article and access to our entire research platform, subscribe to Premium with a 14-day FREE trial, right here!

Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what’s on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet… Read this week’s Macro Nugget below

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

0 Comments