Equities continue to thrive given upbeat liquidity and growth conditions, while Fixed Income and commodities have provided more of a lackluster return, but are the unpopular bets returning in positioning data?

The Aussie bet has not really played out the way we wanted, and we were stopped out earlier today.

Focus on OPEC’s continued production cuts into a story of bouncing growth which sets up a tasty story for crude and maybe also natural gas! Read why here!

Despite inflation not dropping to the extent our models had suggested, the ECB has still been dovishly surprised relative to its base case. Will the ECB prepare for cuts at the meeting this week?

Disinflation is simply not happening as fast as anticipated by our models, but base effects remain very benign in coming months. The stickiness in services is eye-catching, but there is light at the end of the tunnel for the ECB.

Commodities positioning have remained fairly silent over the past few weeks, but we are seeing early signs of appetite for cyclical commodities now. Early innings of a cyclical rebound or just noise?

Join us for the latest Macro Outlook and Presentation of Steno research’s new improved data model offering.

Nat Gas levels are far below sector break-evens, making it a tug of war between short-sellers (mainly CTAs) and producers. Nat Gas looks like a bargain, but let’s see whether the chicken comes home to roost.

The ECB is scared of acting ahead of the Fed, why a substantial dovish surprise is needed in February HICP to bring about a decent probability of spring action from the ECB. Find our updated now-casts here.

Powell keeps referring to a labor market getting into better balance, but is the labour market really moving into a better balance? It is highly doubtful after watching these two charts.

Container rates have peaked for now, but without progress in the Red Sea, there is a risk of a return of higher rates by the spring-time. The damage for US inflation has likely already been done, but we see signs of exhaustion in the long energy bet.

More and more signs point to a plateau in inflation in the US, which makes a return to 2% tough in this cycle. The odds are better in the Eurozone, while the UK remains a basket case.

Another smoking hot inflation report in the “sticky” categories. Shelter is re-accelerating, while wage-heavy categories continue to surprise on the upside. Goods deflation remains ongoing.

We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below

From 200 bps worth of cuts priced in for June across the big 3 CBs in the start of January to 100 bps now. Does it move the needle or is everybody still on the risk-wagon?