In a few short weeks, Vladimir Putin will be announced the winner of the Russian Presidential election.

As a formality, Russian voters will head to the polls between March 15th and 17th, but the result is predetermined: the man behind the ongoing invasion of Ukraine will lead Russia for the next six years in an unprecedented third term as President.

But with sanctions mounting against the Russian economy – the latest of which were announced just this Friday by President Biden – how long can Putin sustain military aggression in Ukraine?

–          Executive summary:

While Putin is no stranger to election fraud, stuffing ballot boxes is hardly worth the effort in this year’s election: Putin’s approval rating hovers around 85% according to the independent Lavada analytical center  – higher than before the invasion. Putin’s popularity is so overwhelming that even Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov admitted that the democratic theatrics of voting wasn’t worth the cost.

A surge in support for the President isn’t surprising: for the average Russian, life is more prosperous than it has been for decades: wages are growing and the poverty rate is at its lowest since the USSR. Putin’s war machine has put fire under the Russian economy.

Chart 1: Russian GDP back to normal