5 Things We Watch Ahead of the FOMC Meeting
2024-05-01Tonight’s FOMC decision will likely come as a surprise to markets, but the rhetoric and possible acknowledgement of market pricing will be key. We provide 5 things that we look ...Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it
2024-04-28The list of triggers for a material devaluation of the CNY keeps getting longer and action is probably imminent. The question is how markets will react to such an event ...5 Things We Watch – SOFR Probabilities, USDJPY, CNY Devaluation, IFO & Eurozone electricity
2024-04-24Equities are back to winning ways, while USD rates traders agree on 0 cuts this year being a probable scenario. Meanwhile, China is likely preparing for a devaluation of the ...
Great Game – Could Biden have even more to fear from Trump’s trial?
2024-04-30With Biden catching up in polls, what effect could the “Hush Money” trial have on Trump’s campaign? To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of ...Great Game: Despite New Aid, Ukraine will lose within 12 months. Plan Accordingly!
2024-04-23The US Congress has passed major new aid for Ukraine, but it might be to late. Here’s our assessment and thoughts on how you can prepare for when Ukraine loses To ...Iran’s attack – Large in Size, Harmless in Effect. What’s next?
2024-04-16Undertanding Iran’s strike and what might come next – plus some potential solutions for the Red Sea crisis. To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of ...
Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets
2024-05-03The overall dovish FOMC message Wednesday has laid the foundation for liquidity bets to perform over the coming weeks, as the hopes of rate cuts are back alive amidst the ...Quant signals: FX hedge rebalancing model
2024-05-02Real money investors holding foreign assets must hedge their FX exposure and adjust their hedge as the value of their foreign holdings fluctuates. Our proprietary FX-hedge rebalancing model captures exactly ...Positioning Watch – Prepare for further action in JPY pairs
2024-04-30With BoJ intervening this week, moneyness in options expiring next week has exploded and will likely imply further stress in JPY pairs, while broad equity sentiment sours. Our weekly positioning ...
Something for your Espresso: The cycle is sending mixed signals, but you need to watch Sweden
2024-05-03PMIs have delivered a bunch of head-fake signals in recent years, and the market is now starting to fear a head-fake in Manufacturing again. The evidence is mixed, but still ...Something for your Espresso: A growing acceptance of above target inflation
2024-05-02It seems like there is a growing acceptance of above target inflation embedded in the FOMC reaction function. Markets took on a roller-coaster ride after the FOMC, but we see ...Something for your Espresso: Bye bye reflation? Not so fast..
2024-05-01There are two major narratives in USD space right now. One is to discuss whether the Fed needs to cut at all, the other is to conclude that the US ...
EM Gold Rush: The pressure valve amid Asian FX debasement risks?
2024-04-17Asian FX weakness is back, and the USD/Gold correlation has turned positive. This begs the question: How does it rhyme with the continued surge higher in gold, and has something ...EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!
2024-04-10The strategic shift from Real Estate to Green-tech manufacturing in China is very evident and it will likely impact Europe to a much larger extent than the US. Counterintuitively, it ...Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?
2024-04-03Korea has, by first-hand experience, been a sell-side favorite, and the Kospi has been on a roll recently. Some leading cyclical indicators have started to turn however, and the question ...
Crypto Moves #26 – What Goes Up Must Come Down
2024-05-02The crypto market experienced a remarkable rally from late last year up to now. However, all good things eventually come to an end. The market is facing a shortage of ...Crypto Crisp: Stripe Returns to Crypto
2024-04-29The crypto market lacks drivers to push prices higher, yet many factors loom that could lead to declines. Short-term narratives are unconvincing, and the buying pressure prior to the Bitcoin ...Crypto Moves #25 – Ethereum Restaking: Potential is Not Risk-Free
2024-04-26Restaking of Ether, with initiatives like EigenLayer, has the potential to significantly enhance Ethereum, benefiting holders, stakers, developers, and the broader ecosystem. However, these benefits are not without their drawbacks. ...