Donald Trump’s reelection as President of the United States is a game changer for the crypto market, setting the stage for transformative years ahead. We are confident that this will reshape the industry. However, in the immediate term, the rally seems to be driven more by the derivatives market than by the spot market. We would like to see some of this speculative excess ease, paving the way for a more sustainable move higher.
There is little doubt that the first U.S. rate cut will happen next week. Here is our view on how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest of the crypto market will react to this cut, despite the limited historical data available.
We turned bearish on Monday due to a worsening economic outlook, characterized by weaker growth and tightening liquidity in September. While the month will be challenging, it’s premature to declare the bull market over. We expect either further downward movement or sideways trading this month, but anticipate a strong recovery starting in October and continuing beyond.
The crypto market has favored Bitcoin and Ethereum this year, while some investors have risked everything on cryptocurrencies with little potential. Given the market’s momentum-driven nature and the upcoming Ethereum spot ETFs, we see no reason for this trend to change going forward. Additionally, we examine unlocks, from which Bitcoin and Ethereum are also spared.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows of $1.829 billion last week, with last Tuesday marking the second-best day since their January 11 launch, bringing in $887 million. The key question is how much of this inflow is due to basis trading, with no price impact. At least some of it is.
There is no reason to fear the imminent Mt. Gox repayment to creditors. Instead, you should be encouraged by the extremely positive developments happening right before our eyes. In this note, we compare these factors with the Mt. Gox estate situation.
The crypto market experienced a remarkable rally from late last year up to now. However, all good things eventually come to an end. The market is facing a shortage of compelling short-term narratives, significant selling pressure, and unfavorable seasonal trends. While increased liquidity might provide some relief, it is unlikely to make a significant impact in the near term.
Bitcoin does not currently function as a safe haven. According to our quantitative model, it behaves more like a risk-on asset, similar to technology stocks. However, there is potential for Bitcoin to become a safe haven in the future. At this point, there is evidence suggesting that Bitcoin effectively serves as an inflation hedge.
Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions sent Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbling, but the crypto market quickly rebounded, arguably thanks to Hong Kong’s new ETF approvals and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Despite this recovery, ongoing Iran-Israel tensions could still disrupt the market.
Since their debut three months ago, the US-based Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted a significant inflow of capital, totaling $12.5 billion. The momentum does not stop here, with additional countries poised to roll out their own exchange-traded Bitcoin products.
Bitcoin is at the forefront of the market, with other cryptocurrencies attempting to keep pace. We anticipate a continued upward trajectory until a shift occurs, particularly for Bitcoin, in the months following the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
We foresee the next Bitcoin halving as a short-term “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, echoing the 2016 halving’s pattern, this time around even with heightened anticipation from Bitcoin ETF holders. However, long-term, we expect it to bolster Bitcoin’s price significantly, as the market tends to underappreciate the impact of these supply shocks.
A showdown is unfolding in the crypto world, specifically between BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, and Gary Gensler, the Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Moreover, echoing our view from last week’s Crypto Crisp, we are not anticipating significant volatility in the upcoming weeks, especially considering the recent net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs.
The crypto market is getting less speculative by the minute. There is no need to chase the next big thing by risking funds on obscure altcoins or memecoins. Instead, by aligning with institutional movements, crypto investors stand to gain significantly without taking on too much risk.
Looking ahead to the next week in the crypto market, we envision two potential scenarios. One possibility is that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, with Ethereum quickly on its heels. On the other end of the spectrum, the market could experience a minimum 10% decline as it sheds excess leverage. Intriguingly, it is possible that both events could unfold.
Only one has previously had more supremacy in Bitcoin than Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, namely Satoshi Nakamoto. Saylor has emerged as a leading figure within the Bitcoin community, with his dominance appearing unending – a scenario Nakamoto aimed to avoid. We are concerned that Saylor’s influence may soon become undeniably irreversible.
This week “5 Things We Watch” dives into the divergence between US and Europe inflation, OPEC continuing its cutting cycle, focus on shipping distortions in energy and Bitcoin boom.
Over the past week, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, emerged as the top performer in an otherwise subdued crypto market. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a decrease in net inflow into exchange-traded products, including Bitcoin spot ETFs, compared to the previous week. On Friday, the Uniswap Foundation suggested a new fee mechanism, potentially enhancing its token significantly.
It seems that a significant portion of the crypto market turned bearish following Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday. However, we remain bullish. We believe the speech did not bring about significant changes; liquidity is still expected to increase, Bitcoin is experiencing substantial ETF inflows, and the crypto market is on the verge of embracing three powerful narratives.
In this issue, we explore the initial week of Bitcoin spot ETFs through various charts. For months, many claimed that the ETFs were not just a case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Now, these same voices argue that the net inflow will soon boost prices. Once again, we adopt a contrasting viewpoint to this popular opinion.
While the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF did not spark a significant reaction in the market for Bitcoin, Ethereum emerged as the clear winner, securing a substantial 15% gain over Bitcoin post-ETF approval. Our expectation is that Ethereum stands to reap further rewards in the coming months, while Bitcoin experiences slow bleeding.
As we step into 2024, it seems like everyone is long crypto left, right, and center. This environment does not elicit much enthusiasm from us, as it brings back memories of the exact opposite situation just a year ago. We have identified five key factors that we believe will shape 2024. Among them, three are anticipated to pose potential downsides, one holds the potential for an upside surprise, and there is a joker that seems to be completely overlooked.
In a few decades, Bitcoin may face challenges in covering its own security and maintaining decentralization if no alterations are made, given the halving events occurring every fourth year. The fundamental question arises: Can Bitcoin truly serve as digital gold if the outlook suggests it struggles to fund its security within the next two decades?
Bitcoin is a pet rock. It will never achieve a transactional output much greater than its current maximum of 7 transactions per second. This falls short of what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned for Bitcoin. That being said, Bitcoin has embraced other extremely powerful narratives that set it apart from the rest of the market, which arguably hold greater significance than what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned 15 years ago.
The crypto industry can breathe a sigh of relief as institutions enter the crypto space, even as the industry continues to lick its wounds after last year’s contagion. The industry does not appreciate the European Union’s MiCA framework enough, if at all. Few seem to know what it is, yet it will be vital in shaping tomorrow’s crypto industry.
A bet on crypto right now is a bet on macroeconomics. For believers in a soft landing and imminent interest rate cuts, accumulating crypto could be advantageous. In this scenario, we believe Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin massively. Alternatively, those anticipating a hard landing may find it wise to stay on the sidelines for now. Delve deeper into our analysis for a comprehensive understanding of our view.
We align with the market consensus that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US is imminent. Given this widespread belief, we contend that this ETF might already be priced in, particularly considering the risk of Grayscale releasing billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoins into the market. Our assessment leans towards anticipating more downward selling pressure than the opposite, contrasting with the prevailing market sentiment.
There have been three Bitcoin halvings in total, and each time, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high within a maximum of 1.5 years. Observing many of the same factors present in the three prior halvings, we argue that history is likely to repeat itself after the fourth halving in April 2024.