President Biden flies to South Asia on a charm offensive. But what can he accomplish and what will the Chinese do?
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.
Weaker USD, lower rates, performing equities and credits. Powell blew it if he truly wanted to push back on loosening financial conditions. The Fed is now talking about the extent of hikes instead of the pace of hikes, which is an open door to a pause already in March. Position accordingly, not least as the ECB has a rare opportunity to “hawk things up” further.
Right about now, India surpasses China as the world’s most populous nation. Their demographics are clearly better than China’s with a much less rapidly shrinking birth rate and a better balance between the sexes. However, India is nowhere near the status of China in global affairs. What does India lack and how much will come in the coming years? We point to three areas where India need to (and will!) invest to become a truly global player: 1) Defense Industry India is the world’s largest importer of weapons. That is a testament to India’s major military build-up in recent years, but also reveals an important weakness – India can’t supply its own army, navy and air force with the hardware it needs. Modi’s grand ‘Make in India’ plan from 2014 did much to kick-start the Indian defense industry and companies such as Astra and Kamov have made great strides in recent years, India simply lacks the industrial capacity and know-how to produce the advanced weaponry needed to become a super power. To be even more to the point – India needs to be able to produce its own fighter jets, missiles and most importantly carriers and other capital ships. One gamechanger in this weakness is the Indian ship manufacturing industry. We expect that sector to undergo a major expansion in coming years due to the Western oil embargoes on Russia. India is the logical candidate to fill the void – both in terms of buying the cheap Russian oil […]