Great Game – Could Biden have even more to fear from Trump’s trial?
With Biden catching up in polls, what effect could the "Hush Money" trial have on Trump's campaign?
Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we will catch up on events in the Middle East and also cover the Trump trial that’s currently taking all the attention in the US Election race.
All Quiet in Iran?
Situation:
- Israel responded very lightly to the massive Iranian attack on April 13th and we haven’t heard any more from that conflict over the past week.
Analysis:
- As we predicted, Israel’s response was “next to nothing” and clearly acknowledged the de-escalatory nature of Iran’s strike. I know some took offense to that analysis, but it is genuinely our assessment and I think events since has reinforced that view.
- Now, attention in the region again turns to the Gaza conflict and the negotiations that are seemingly going nowhere.
- Simultaneously, we are hearing increased reports that the US is in advanced talks with the Houthis over a solution to the Red Sea crisis, but it’s all most likely linked to the Gaza conflict and a resolution there.
What comes next:
- With regards to Iran/Israel – nothing. Neither side wants to reignite the fire and instead are focused on other problems.
- In Gaza – it’s really tough to say. I still fail to see why the conflict should carry on through the summer, but on the other hand things seem at a complete dead lock right now.
- Keep an eye on the supply situation and the development on freight rates which are still at levels way higher than pre-crisis.
Will Trump’s White House Hopes Die if convicted?
Situation:
- President Biden has made significant headway in recent polls, closing some of the gap that Trump previously held
- Meanwhile, the “hush money” trial has begun, which many speculate could cost Trump the presidency if he is convicted
Analysis:
With Biden catching up in polls, what effect could the “Hush Money” trial have on Trump’s campaign?
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