Chinese equities and metal proxies continue to surge, but FX settlement numbers from April hint that the FX pressures in CNY space are very very real. Is it generally very expensive to decide on the “slow burning path”.
Great Game – Could Biden have even more to fear from Trump’s trial?
With Biden catching up in polls, what effect could the “Hush Money” trial have on Trump’s campaign?
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Something for your Espresso: Was it an eye for an eye?
Markets will remain on high geopolitical alert this week as we are awaiting whether Israel accepts the “eye for an eye” logic put forward by both Iran and the US. We see moderately upbeat markets ahead.
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Iran/Israel debrief: A very soft response from Iran – No risk of wider war
Read our analysis before panicking and be ready for markets to open on Monday
Israel-Iran War Coming?
Are Israel and Iran headed for war? We give our analysis and paint out the most likely scenario.
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Great Game – Why Biden goes soft on Iran
There are early signs that Political risks have plateaued in the Oil space and US military retaliations may not be as escalatory as portrayed by many media outlets. Read our week’s geopolitics take below!
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Energy Cable #51: Tensions increasing fast in the Red Sea
Tensions are clearly on the rise in the Red Sea with fatal stand-offs over the New Years weekend. The most recent satellite photo evidence suggests that supply chain disruptions are material but manageable. Will the Houthis propel energy- and transportation costs again?
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The Great Game: What to make of the Iran-Saudi Deal and Ukraine holding on to Bakhmut
Are the Chinese taking over management of the Middle East? Have Sweden given up on NATO? Why was I completely wrong about Bakhmut? Read all the answers in this year’s Great Game!
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The Great Game: Iran Under Attack – Our Quick Take
While still early days, it certainly seems like Iran is the target of a planned, organized wave of drone strikes. Is it a response to Friday’s attack on the Azeri embassy? Is it a US plot to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions? What’s the endgame?
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The Great Game #5 – China and the Anti-Western Axis
China’s recent deals with both Iran and Saudi Arabia should be a wake-up call for the West. Xi wants to position China as both the political and economical centre of gravity for the Global South.
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