There is little doubt that the first U.S. rate cut will happen next week. Here is our view on how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest of the crypto market will react to this cut, despite the limited historical data available.
Crypto Moves #42 – Where Do We Go From Here?
We turned bearish on Monday due to a worsening economic outlook, characterized by weaker growth and tightening liquidity in September. While the month will be challenging, it’s premature to declare the bull market over. We expect either further downward movement or sideways trading this month, but anticipate a strong recovery starting in October and continuing beyond.
Crypto Moves #36 – Give the Ethereum ETFs a Week, Then It Is Up Only
The Ethereum price has dipped slightly since the launch of its U.S.-based ETFs, primarily due to significant outflows from Grayscale. There is no reason to consider the ETFs a failure despite the slight net outflow. In fact, this situation presents a prime buying opportunity.
Crypto Crisp: We Roll
Now we roll. The crypto market, especially Bitcoin, has experienced substantial gains in recent weeks, but that is just the beginning. Many other positive factors are on the horizon. Additionally, it looks like U.S.-based Ethereum spot ETFs will launch tomorrow, which should put an end to Ethereum’s underperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Crypto Portfolio: Adding Ethereum Alpha with ETF Launch and Institutional Onchain Adoption
In our crypto portfolio, we are adding exposure to a token characterized by strong revenue generation, net profits comparable to technology equities, no inflation or token unlocks, and a prime position to benefit from the growing trend of Real-World Assets (RWAs). Additionally, its high correlation with and outperformance of Ethereum suggest positive impacts from the upcoming Ethereum ETFs.
Crypto Moves #35 – Keep Altcoins at an Arm’s Length From Your Portfolio
The crypto market has favored Bitcoin and Ethereum this year, while some investors have risked everything on cryptocurrencies with little potential. Given the market’s momentum-driven nature and the upcoming Ethereum spot ETFs, we see no reason for this trend to change going forward. Additionally, we examine unlocks, from which Bitcoin and Ethereum are also spared.
Crypto Moves #34 – The U.S. Ethereum Spot ETFs Are Not Priced In
The market’s outlook on the upcoming Ethereum spot ETFs is overly pessimistic. We anticipate a net inflow of $15 to $20 billion within the first year, as Ethereum possesses qualities that appeal to Wall Street. This should drive its value significantly higher, not only in dollar terms but also relative to Bitcoin.
Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?
Ethereum’s market outlook is highly bullish following the approval of its spot ETFs, expected to attract $15 to $20 billion in net inflow within a year, despite initial outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. With a friendlier regulatory environment and unique attributes like deflationary supply and staking rewards, Ethereum’s price is projected to reach $6,500 by October. The ETH/BTC ratio is anticipated to hit at least 0.065 later this year.
Crypto Nugget: Here Comes the Ethereum Spot ETF
President Biden and his administration have made a complete 180 to attract pro-crypto voters. Now, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF seems more likely than ever. We estimate a 95% chance of approval this year, most likely as early as this week. These ETFs, combined with a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment for crypto, will propel us to new heights.
Crypto Moves #28 – U.S. Election Puts Crypto on the Map
There have been no recent updates regarding the SEC’s impending decision on an Ethereum spot ETF. Nevertheless, the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election and Trump’s unexpected pro-crypto stance are exerting pressure on President Biden to adopt more crypto-friendly policies.
Crypto Crisp: Your Move, Gary Gensler
This is the final week before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must make a decision on the Ethereum spot ETF. Given the potentially transformative impact of an Ethereum spot ETF, the next two weeks are critical for the entire industry. There have been several developments regarding this matter in the recent weeks.
Crypto Moves #27 – Rollups Leave Ethereum in the Dust
Ethereum’s rollups are poised to realize its potential as a decentralized global computer; however, these same rollups are undermining Ethereum’s current strongest narrative as an appealing yield-generating asset. The promises of rollups will only counterbalance this undermining of Ethereum’s narrative as a productive asset in a few years.
Crypto Moves #25 – Ethereum Restaking: Potential is Not Risk-Free
Restaking of Ether, with initiatives like EigenLayer, has the potential to significantly enhance Ethereum, benefiting holders, stakers, developers, and the broader ecosystem. However, these benefits are not without their drawbacks. Engaging in restaking carries substantial risks for the individual holders involved and also poses systemic risks to the Ethereum network as a whole.
Crypto Crisp: Hong Kong Rhymes With Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions sent Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbling, but the crypto market quickly rebounded, arguably thanks to Hong Kong’s new ETF approvals and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Despite this recovery, ongoing Iran-Israel tensions could still disrupt the market.
Crypto Moves #21 – Avalanche Is Slowly But Surely Dying
Avalanche, despite its standing as the 10th largest cryptocurrency and a significant player among Layer 1 blockchains with smart contract capabilities, faces a grim outlook. With a nearly $40 billion fully diluted market capitalization, its onchain activity is declining, lagging behind competitors like Solana and Ethereum’s rollups. There is simply not much to celebrate for AVAX holders.
Crypto Crisp: Larry Fink vs. Gary Gensler
A showdown is unfolding in the crypto world, specifically between BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, and Gary Gensler, the Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Moreover, echoing our view from last week’s Crypto Crisp, we are not anticipating significant volatility in the upcoming weeks, especially considering the recent net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Crypto Moves #20 – Ethereum Will Never Be the Same
A week has passed since Proto-Danksharding was implemented on the Ethereum blockchain. This upgrade has transformed Ethereum and its rollup ecosystem, setting the stage for expansion into brand new territories. Our advice? It is not wise to go against this trend by placing bets on so-called “Ethereum killers.”
Crypto Moves #19 – Liquid Staking Protocols Are Ethereum’s Saver
Ethereum’s transition to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism has been a significant boon, instantly positioning it as the most productive cryptocurrency among its peers. However, this success comes with a vulnerability; if future Ethereum spot ETFs gain the ability to stake Ether, Ethereum’s fate could largely fall under the control of traditional finance. The most feasible countermeasure to this scenario lies in the full adoption of liquid staking protocols.
Crypto Moves #18 – The Least Speculative Crypto Bull Market
The crypto market is getting less speculative by the minute. There is no need to chase the next big thing by risking funds on obscure altcoins or memecoins. Instead, by aligning with institutional movements, crypto investors stand to gain significantly without taking on too much risk.
Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios
Looking ahead to the next week in the crypto market, we envision two potential scenarios. One possibility is that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, with Ethereum quickly on its heels. On the other end of the spectrum, the market could experience a minimum 10% decline as it sheds excess leverage. Intriguingly, it is possible that both events could unfold.
Crypto Crisp: Finally, Uniswap
Over the past week, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, emerged as the top performer in an otherwise subdued crypto market. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a decrease in net inflow into exchange-traded products, including Bitcoin spot ETFs, compared to the previous week. On Friday, the Uniswap Foundation suggested a new fee mechanism, potentially enhancing its token significantly.
Crypto Moves #16 – Why We Are Long Ethereum Layer 2s
We are incredibly optimistic about the Ethereum Layer 2 space. We are backing this conviction up with a selection of rollup tokens in our portfolio. It appears the wider market has not yet caught on to the fact that rollups could soon render almost all other Layer 1 cryptocurrencies redundant, largely thanks to leveraging Ethereum’s unmatched network effect. These tokens also stand out as some of the rare cryptocurrencies that could genuinely become yield-generating in the not-so-distant future.
Crypto Moves #15 – 90% Likelihood of an Ethereum Spot ETF Approval This Year
We have a high level of confidence that the US will witness the launch of an Ethereum spot ETF within this year, assigning a 90% probability to this event. Our optimism is grounded in five key reasons. We have every reason to believe that an Ethereum spot ETF will be just as successful as the Bitcoin spot ETFs have already been.
Crypto Moves #13 – Why So Bearish, Anon?
It seems that a significant portion of the crypto market turned bearish following Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday. However, we remain bullish. We believe the speech did not bring about significant changes; liquidity is still expected to increase, Bitcoin is experiencing substantial ETF inflows, and the crypto market is on the verge of embracing three powerful narratives.
Crypto Moves #12 – Our biggest position: Ethereum
Everyone is looking forward to the Bitcoin halving, yet there is little focus on Ethereum’s equivalent of a triple halving. In our crypto portfolio, Ethereum takes the spotlight. We predict that Ethereum will evolve into a widely-utilized digital commodity, coupled with a decreasing supply and the ability to generate dividends – a truly unique asset, not just in crypto, but beyond.
Crypto Moves #10 – Next, Ethereum
While the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF did not spark a significant reaction in the market for Bitcoin, Ethereum emerged as the clear winner, securing a substantial 15% gain over Bitcoin post-ETF approval. Our expectation is that Ethereum stands to reap further rewards in the coming months, while Bitcoin experiences slow bleeding.
Crypto Moves #9 – Is It Too Obvious That 2024 is the Year of Crypto?
As we step into 2024, it seems like everyone is long crypto left, right, and center. This environment does not elicit much enthusiasm from us, as it brings back memories of the exact opposite situation just a year ago. We have identified five key factors that we believe will shape 2024. Among them, three are anticipated to pose potential downsides, one holds the potential for an upside surprise, and there is a joker that seems to be completely overlooked.
Crypto Moves #6 – They Are Here
The crypto industry can breathe a sigh of relief as institutions enter the crypto space, even as the industry continues to lick its wounds after last year’s contagion. The industry does not appreciate the European Union’s MiCA framework enough, if at all. Few seem to know what it is, yet it will be vital in shaping tomorrow’s crypto industry.
Crypto Moves #5 – Betting on Macro
A bet on crypto right now is a bet on macroeconomics. For believers in a soft landing and imminent interest rate cuts, accumulating crypto could be advantageous. In this scenario, we believe Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin massively. Alternatively, those anticipating a hard landing may find it wise to stay on the sidelines for now. Delve deeper into our analysis for a comprehensive understanding of our view.