The tide may be about to turn on several recent trends as we head into Liberation Day. Here are the four major developments we’re watching closely over the next 24 hours:
Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal tariffs are GOOD news! Here is why!
I have the contrarian take that reciprocal tariffs will ultimately be good news, and global trade may actually end up flourishing. This would leave the tariff trades running on fumes!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)
What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, it seems we’re still early in the business cycle—and things are accelerating once again.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?
The trend shift in fixed income is remarkable and sharply contrarian to the post-Trump consensus. We expect more of the same ahead, coupled with a firm decision by the Fed to support liquidity in December. Meanwhile, gold may see a catalyst.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Portfolio Watch: Stay Composed—The Trump Trade Is Still ON
A few wobbly days over the past 48 hours have left markets and pundits debating whether the Trump trade is exhausted. We view this as a dip to load up on.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
China/Germany Flash Watch: How will China navigate the Trump victory?
The Trump trade is roaring in financial markets, but how will China navigate the turbulence? Should we expect a major fiscal announcement on Friday, or perhaps a conciliatory approach to try and avoid tariffs? And what is happening in German politics?
The Drill – Oil is NOT particularly dependent on the US election
While the world is busy guessing who will win this election, we’re here scratching our heads over what the story for oil will be in the coming months. Will the Saudis flood the markets after the election?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Great Game – What we know about Harris’ economic plan after DNC
What the U.S lacks in Eurovision, they make up for during the Democratic National Convention. But in the midst of the media-mayhem, were we robbed of economic policy?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: The Trump trade is on, but for how long?
The Trump trade is currently gaining traction, but for how long? There is still a long way to November and Biden remains in power for now. Retail Sales numbers from the US will be interesting today.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #108 – A messianic Donald
All talk about Biden will likely fall silent after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Will a “Messianic” Trump impact the markets in the weeks ahead? Meanwhile, the hot PPI report on Friday served as a friendly reminder to still care about inflation.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Great Game – Could Biden have even more to fear from Trump’s trial?
With Biden catching up in polls, what effect could the “Hush Money” trial have on Trump’s campaign?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Demographics Watch: Biden’s voter base grows ahead of 2024 election
With Trump looking as a sure-fire bet to take the Republican nomination, how is the voter demographics poised for the eventual Biden-Trump rematch?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
US Policy Watch: Is Trump’s nomination done and dusted after tonight?
Iowa only matters for DeSantis, New Hampshire is crucial for Haley, and South Carolina is important for everyone.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Great Game – 3 Reasons Why Trump Will Win – And 1 Reason He Won’t
With Donald Trump performing relatively well in recent polls – is he actually the favorite going into 2024? We take a look at some key demographics.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here