Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.
Inflation Watch: 7 charts on EUR inflation after smoking hot prints from Spain and France
Service inflation is feeding through to Europe in size now, which makes the case for further ECB tightening compelling. Here are 7 charts on EUR inflation ahead of the Euro-zone print on Thursday and what it means for markets
The Energy Cable #6 Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up!
Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up! Here is the latest “Energy Cable” update on Natural Gas, Oil – and the overall energy complex with price signals and model based predictions. The only publication to cover this sector across geographies and asset classes. Enjoy!
The Energy Cable #5: The energy market link to the Chinese reopening and the Iranian attacks
Is the Chinese reopening a true game-changer and how will the attacks in Iran over the weekend alter the geopolitical risk picture for energy markets? We provide our takes alongside updated price signals on oil and natural gas. “We are happy when people/things conform and unhappy when they don’t. People and events don’t disappoint us, our models of reality do. It is my model of reality that determines my happiness or disappointments.” – Stefan Zweig 3Fourteen Research: The true story on the Chinese reopening The China reopening story has fueled oil’s 2023 rise. Read the last sentence carefully. I specifically said the China reopening “story.” Said differently, it has not been the reopening of China that has propelled oil to this point. Rather, it has been the “story” of the reopening. Three weeks ago, we dug into oil’s physical market. Back then, we argued that oil could not divorce from its physical reality for very long. With that said, over short time horizons, oil regularly divorces from the physical market. Ultimately, to make an educated guess of where oil is going, you must understand both the physical and paper markets. Today, we take a look at the paper market and how we incorporate it into the 3Fourteen Core Crude Oil Model. At present, the Model remains Neutral (components below). The physical and technical components are bullish. The inventory component is bearish. And, the positioning (i.e. paper or futures) component is neutral. We account for the paper market in the “Positioning” […]
Real Estate Watch – Which markets will be worst off in 2023?
While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.
The Energy Cable #3 – Does technical analysis work for oil?
We have taken a look at technicals in the oil market. Is it voodoo or magic? We also update our price signals for oil and natural gas. Time to buy? Enjoy!
Europolitics watch #2: The Tory Tragedy isn’t about division – it’s about defeatism
12 years of civil war in the Conservative party has trapped Rishi Sunak in a doom-loop between economic crisis and a defeatist Tory MP group. Will the 2024 general election clear the path for reform?
Steno Signals #27 – The tanned grinch
Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.
Steno Signals #25 – Is there any energy left in the energy trade?
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
Steno Signal #18 – The winners and losers of energy nationalism in Europe
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.
Steno Signals #16 – A (semi)-permanent energy GDP-shock in Europe?
Developments through 2022 have exposed the interlink between macro, geopolitics and markets. We see a risk of a (semi)permanent European GDP-shock due to a lack of energy.
Steno Signals #14: What on earth is going on in European electricity markets?
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!
Steno Signals #13 – No, Germany is probably not running out of gas
The media is full of doom and gloom around Europe, and even though the situation is admittedly bad, I tend to think that the likely outcome is less bad than feared by many. Here is why!
Steno Signals #12 – You will all hate me after this..
Germany is doing MUCH better than reported on the Nat Gas front, while everyone seems to agree upon a European zombie-apocalypse scenario making July/August the most hated rally ever.