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EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition victory in Poland opens door for Ukraine in the EU?

EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition victory in Poland opens door for Ukraine in the EU?

On Wednesday, the European commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. Now Ukraine must secure the endorsements of member states – not least Poland’s incoming government who will be decisive for Ukraine’s future with the Union.

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Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Steno Signals #55 – Why surveys struggle to get anything right in this environment

Expectations are real, while the reality is nominal! Soft data keeps getting the reality wrong, which is probably a phenomenon that relates to the extreme spread between nominal- and real figures. Will this issue keep wrong-footing everyone?

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Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Steno Signals #54 – Why Europe remains a wrong consensus call

Geopolitics remain tricky to trade and we don’t see any strong risk/reward trades on the back of the turbulence in Russia over the weekend. Meanwhile, Europe remains an odd consensus bet, while UK inflation and US housing markets risk wrongfooting everyone.

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EM by EM #5 Stairs up and elevator down in China?

EM by EM #5 Stairs up and elevator down in China?

As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position

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Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical recession to an real one?

Out of the box #2: Back to austerity. Euro sovereign crisis vol 2?

The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.

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The Energy Cable #9: Putting inventories into perspective

The Energy Cable #9: Putting inventories into perspective

Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.

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