While we await the Chinese fiscal briefing, we are beginning to see some interesting tradable trends in USD and EUR assets. The gap is widening again, and EUR rates remain far from neutral.

While we await the Chinese fiscal briefing, we are beginning to see some interesting tradable trends in USD and EUR assets. The gap is widening again, and EUR rates remain far from neutral.
EU politics have not been in the limelight for a long while but the parliamentary elections serve as a reminder that the EU project is fragile.. But is the result good or bad news for the EUR?
The US calendar is light in the week ahead, meaning that European central banks take center stage. Will high-beta assets continue to soar on hopes (expectations) of cuts?
Takata from the BoJ has truly restarted speculations in action from the BoJ already in April as he labeled the inflation target as “coming into sight”. Meanwhile, the EUR-flation target may be coming into sight from the other direction despite lukewarm releases today.
We need a very soft inflation report from the Euro area to bring back hopes of ECB spring action. We lean dovish, but dovish enough?
Macro is on the move and we have diverging trends in inflation. Find our brief overview of the five themes that move markets the most this week in global macro.
The risk of another supply-driven sell-off in USTs has diminished as the fiscal trajectory in the US is improving slightly due to an improving income side. Meanwhile, we have a big day ahead for the Euro area.
It remains an overwhelming consensus that a strong cutting cycle is in the cards, but there is growing uncertainty around the inflation outlook that is yet to be reflected in market pricing. Money trends are not tight enough.
Inflation evidence keeps coming in soft in Europe and early evidence from Germany and France support another dovish surprise. Meanwhile, rates are coming down again.
The ECB Hawks have taken significant steps towards a forthcoming policy pivot. But what if they remain on the backfoot?
The strong US data seasonality into year end could wreak havoc with the current early Santa Rally in cyclicals. We are on high alert for a hawkish reaction function in December.
On Wednesday, the European commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. Now Ukraine must secure the endorsements of member states – not least Poland’s incoming government who will be decisive for Ukraine’s future with the Union.
Recession models are mostly based on manufacturing, which currently rebounds leading to the conclusion that the recession risk recedes? But are actual recession risks rather on the rise?
The Eurozone bear case seems to finally be playing out but what is the current state in Europe? Bleak and divided are two words that spring to mind.
Sticky inflation, renewed issues with high energy costs and a light recession in the making already. Europe screams stagflation and even the ECB admits to it. Meanwhile, we are edging closer to the actual payroll recession in the US.
The credit contraction is already a reality in Europe and the Q3 ECB Credit Survey confirmed that a contraction is the most likely scenario for H2-2023. There are early signs of improvement, which means that we may get an outright rebound into 2024.
Expectations are real, while the reality is nominal! Soft data keeps getting the reality wrong, which is probably a phenomenon that relates to the extreme spread between nominal- and real figures. Will this issue keep wrong-footing everyone?
European inflation numbers have already started to come in.. Will June look as soft as May? Probably not.. But inflation numbers are coming down, slowly but surely in Europe.
The ECB tries to incentivize governments to withdraw their funds from the ECB to mitigate a complete catastrophe when the QT race really begins at double speed from July and onwards. Will they succeed, and what will the ramifications be? Find out here.
Benign opening after a volatile weekend with no signs of an increased risk premium in energy/grain markets, while bonds open bid. The inflation numbers will dictate the trends this week.
Geopolitics remain tricky to trade and we don’t see any strong risk/reward trades on the back of the turbulence in Russia over the weekend. Meanwhile, Europe remains an odd consensus bet, while UK inflation and US housing markets risk wrongfooting everyone.
The Canadian PPI continued its landslide yesterday and it makes you question whether BoC was too quick re-accelerating the hiking cycle. Meanwhile, markets keep coping with USD issuance.
A WSJ article suggested that US banks will be required to hold up to 20% more capital should the Basel rules be fully implemented by 2025. The Fed is likely to present a new direction for regulation by the end of this month according to sources. How severe is this? Here are the numbers..
As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position
The China play has thus far not been profitable but I refuse to back down on my underlining analysis- Yet some reconsiderations are in order and it might be the start of a larger reevaluation. But for now the course of the ship is intact
The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.
The term inflation has merged from academia to layman’s vocabulary. The question is whether it’s time to shelf the term or if it remains as relevant as ever. We look at forward-looking indicators and try to pass judgment – this time on Europe.
Another strong IFO report from Germany on the surface of it, but is the European economy close to rolling over from a momentum perspective? Let’s have a look at the details.
After a job claims report that was only slightly weaker than the consensus yesterday, our focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the PMI reports toda
Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.