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Steno Signals #54 – Why Europe remains a wrong consensus call

Geopolitics remain tricky to trade and we don’t see any strong risk/reward trades on the back of the turbulence in Russia over the weekend. Meanwhile, Europe remains an odd consensus bet, while UK inflation and US housing markets risk wrongfooting everyone.
2023-06-25

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From a coup d’état to a nothing burger in a matter of hours. It was certainly an emotionally volatile day in Russia, and we struggle to see how Ukraine is not the ultimate winner of this despite the peace-deal between Prighozhin and Putin. Putin looks weakened and the jury is still out on where this all ends. For now, we don’t see any reason to get worked up over the geopolitical risks, even if a quiet palace revolt has increased in probability in Russia.

The area around the all-important oil-harbor Novorossiysk, the gas-flows via Turkstream and the prospects ahead of the renegotiation of Black Sea grain deal all seem relatively stable, but maybe Erdogan will manage to win a few concessions from Putin now that he backed him through the weekend? This is unlikely to be price bullish news for Grain and Energy.

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Chart of the week: Russian oil infrastructure


Geopolitics remain tricky to trade and we don’t see any strong risk/reward trades on the back of the turbulence in Russia over the weekend. Meanwhile, Europe remains an odd consensus bet, while UK inflation and US housing markets risk wrongfooting everyone.
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