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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #38: Inflation returning with a vengeance?

As the US CPI is set to maintain its resilience, several sectors are contending with margin pressure due to the slower decline in costs. In the world of emerging markets, the soft landing appears to be losing steam, running on fumes. Meanwhile, finance ministers are once again in the limelight as 2024 unfolds as a pivotal election year globally

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?

Forward curves continue to trend lower in the US and Eurozone. The early adopters are leading the way, but perhaps Yellen’s spending spree will pose another challenge for her EM colleagues. We have taken a look at potential receiver/steepener cases in EM space.

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Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #19 The Simsek Effect kicking in?

The Turkish central bank hiked the interest rates by 750 basis points against the market expectations of 200 bp underlying this month and both stocks & lira rallied on the back of it. Where is the Turkey case heading from here? Read our view here

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM BY EM #17 China: Real Estate Complex and the “phony” stimulus

In 2021, I took a bearish position in the Chinese real estate market. However, the scale of the repercussions stemming from the ongoing deleveraging process in Chinese real estate has raised our concerns. Despite this, we believe that the CCP will likely need to intervene in the near term to address the situation

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #9 The EM proxy crime and when to commit it

As a new addition to our editorial, I will now provide a monthly overview of emerging markets, taking a step back from the intricacies and offering a broader perspective. The purpose of this feature is to outline our current positioning within the market cycle and highlight the key factors we are monitoring surrounding EM.

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #8 The Indian elephant in the room- will it keep holding up?

In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #7 Is Turkey to TRY a pivot?

As the Lira is trying to outcompete the depreciation of the Venezuelan Bolivar and the volatility of dogecoin, we provide our view and assessment of the near-term impact of Erdogan’s narrow victory. Markets were not impressed by the outcome but will the skepticism remain the prevailing narrative?

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #6 – is Brazil still attractive?

Having commenced this series with a bullish perspective on Brazil, it has now been approximately two months since my initial analysis. As I reassess the situation, I contemplate whether the trade is losing momentum or if there are still untapped profits to be seized.

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #5 Stairs up and elevator down in China?

As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position

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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

EM by EM #4 – Argentina and the real de-dollarisation

In recent weeks, social media and leading financial media have been flooded with sensational articles about the dollar’s demise. In this piece, I will provide an analysis of the actual immediate obstacles facing the American dollar where USD hegemony is being undermined. Given the current US debt ceiling theater, one can scarcely think of a better point of reference than the debt default champion of the Western hemisphere: Argentina

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Asset Allocation Watch – How to exactly position for USD weakness?

Asset Allocation Watch – How to exactly position for USD weakness?

Last week we released our first edition of the ‘Dollar O’ Meter’ which sat out to probe the USD and its relative strength (or weakness). Without giving too much away, we find conviction that further weakness in the USD is up ahead in the next few months. If we are correct, how should one then position for such a circumstance?

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