EM BY EM #10 2021 in reverse: Will EM Central banks outsmart DM’s once again?
EM’s are often looked down on due to their weak institutional framework and unpredictable nature. Pension funds and long-only would only chip in if they are well-covered, and many traders looking for small moves often have traumatic positions on their record- if they indeed ever dipped their toe in the unknown waters to start with that is.
To perform consistently in a volatile environment it’s crucial to get the big moves right- and since local idiosyncracies tend to drive the prevailing narratives on the back of global macro, specialization in local affairs is usually a necessity- a resource in limited supply. But from a larger perspective, EM’s are led by flows- and while liquidity was loose flows followed suit. See the Bloomberg EM liquidity index here for context:
Find out how we prefer to position in EM’s at the bottom, 14-day trial below!
Chart 1: EM flows vs EM Bonds and EM Equity ETF’s