Filter by Categories

EM by EM #8 The Indian elephant in the room- will it keep holding up?

In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook - India counterintuitively is not cheap.
2023-06-12

In this analysis from last year, I explored the Asian geopolitical landscape and questioned how it will look in the post-Ukraine war world. I highlighted the possibility of Russia’s weakening becoming India’s strategic gain and argued why adversely this could lead to more tensions with China.

I argued that the convergence of Western supply lines seeking alternative destinations to China and India’s significant economic potential, characterized by its vast, growing, and cost-effective labor resource, presents a challenge to the CCP’s economic model- a threat that Beijing would likely attempt to undermine. (If you wanna check out how the fundamentals in demographics, trade and other key markers yourself – I would advise you to explore our new Data hub right here)

In March, the Economist followed up and coined the term “Altasia” for the rest of the suitors in the East Asian region wanting a piece of the potential capital exodus from China.

There is little doubt that the winners may be many but unlike Cambodja and other worthy candidates, India has strategic leverage due to its geopolitical importance. The West seeking a trade substitute could too find a reliable regional ally to counter Beijing’s influence on the Asian continent and in the Indian Ocean & the South China Sea.

India’s economic fundamentals are undeniably attractive and the geopolitical tensions provide a unique opportunity for the West to invite India to align itself under its umbrella.

And how is New Delhi navigating the waters from its newfound position of strength? Besides standing up to China, they are playing the Russians and the West out against one another for Oil and capital:

Chart 1: Russian Seaborne Crude Destination

Find out our look on India and how we look at India investing-wise in a 14-day FREE trial below.

In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.

You need to login or sign up to one of our member plans to see this. Login

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]