We have a big inflation week ahead of us with US PPI & CPI inflation paired with final details from Europe. Meanwhile, we are watching the situation in Ukraine/Russia and the Nat Gas market.
Energy Cable: OPEC needs a big rebound on the demand side
The OPEC group continues to keep the supply of oil artificially low, but the big question is now the demand side of the equation. This OPEC policy is bullish, if the demand side keeps improving.
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Energy Cable: A new supply side crisis brewing in Nat Gas space?
We are once again long the mother of all window maker trades, but there are interesting moves to trade in the energy space again, as the supply side of Nat Gas (and Oil) is back in the lime-light.
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Energy Watch: Is Nat Gas THE macro case of 2024?
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
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Trade Alert: More Gas To The Cycle
We add to our cyclical rotation, while we take profit in our very profitable tech bets.
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Energy Cable #55: Red Sea troubles leading to breakout in oil!
The Red Sea crisis contagion is spreading to the energy space. With signs of stress emerging in Energy Markets, we have entered a timely long as positioning remains light despite the ongoing Red Sea debacles.
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Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply getting out of balance?
The shipping situation keeps worsening with some early spill-overs to the energy space. It remains to be seen whether tankers will be redirected to the extent seen with containers, but the risk remains elevated.
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Trade alert: Fueling up!
We find a strong risk/reward setup in the energy space again..
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Something for your Espresso: Cold-flation coming
Ueda has hawked up the rhetoric this morning after hawkish PPI numbers from Japan. We see a dovish CPI report from Europe this week, but the cold-flation is looming.
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Energy Cable #47: Price always leads narrative
Price always leads the narrative and the oil bears were very vocal last week. That is typically a good timing to consider a counter trade as we have done so far with good luck. Here is why!
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Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a diversifier + JPY focus
Your weekly Energy Cable with thoughts on the growing correlations across natural gas and electricity in Europe and a quick JPY take
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The Energy Cable #42 – Quiet self-gratulation and then onto natural gas and crude oil
Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved. What are the probable implications for oil, and how about natural gas given the winter ahead and Europe’s dependence?
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Macro Nugget: Is the UK Prepared for the Winter?
There is no shortage of depressing data coming out of the UK in recent quarters. The question is whether we’ve seen the worst of stagflation. Maybe, but be careful what you wish for
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Something for your Espresso: The Manufacturing versus Services conundrum continues
There are signs of a pick-up in German activity in the details from the IFO survey. A long in Nat Gas looks increasingly compelling, while US Manufacturing keeps rebounding as well.
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The Energy Cable #37 – The good old fossil fuels are back in business
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
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The Energy Cable #36 – Will we finally see Chinese demand with the new stimulus?
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
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FX Watch: Everything that matters for EUR/USD is natural gas
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
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The Energy Cable #29 – A weak USD paving the way for commodities?
The sudden weakness in the USD adds to the list of positives for energy and commodities overall. Is the best possible bull setup now in place? We take a look.
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The Energy Cable #27 – Negative electricity prices in Europe, while Saudi Arabia strikes again
Europe has seen some remarkable energy prices in recent days with record negative electricity prices in the North Western part of the continent, while Saudi Arabia strikes again and prolongs the supply cuts into August.
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The Energy Cable #22 – China is not playing ball
Will OPEC+ be able to rock the boat in energy markets again? Saudi Arabian budget break-evens are probably 5-7$ above current selling prices and MBS could be tempted to try and force the price higher again. The issue is that China is not playing ball and other OPEC+ members oppose further production cuts.
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The Energy Cable #21 – Energy taking the temperature on the Economy
While OPEC+ tries their best to prop up prices via cutbacks on supply, demand is evidently still not as strong as oil bulls would’ve liked. Will the Chinese momentum pick up and deplete reserves and will the turn of summer in the northern hemisphere counter such effects?
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The Energy Cable #20 – The Tension Builds
The Chinese comeback is still very services based, which has proven to be an issue for the energy bull case. Will the Chinese momentum be reignited in H2 and where does it leave the energy space?
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The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan
The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan Our price models are deteriorating under the surface. The oil and gas bull market is probably not around the corner. We look at risk/reward in the energy space in the context of the recessionary vibes stemming from the banking crisis. We know, we know … You are all focused on the banking drama in the US and its potential contagion to other markets. We wouldn’t want to let you down on a fresh Energy Cable, however we promise to be brief. Our latest model updates do not hint of a bull-market in energy around the corner. Rather the contrary. Let’s have a look at the risk/reward across oil, nat gas and metals in the context of the ongoing banking crisis. Steno Research: China bought as much energy as they usually do in 2022. Forget about the “reopening story” in Energy Loyal readers will know that we have remained very skeptical about the bullish outlook for energy on the back of the Chinese reopening. Lo and behold, we have some more data to back up that point. The ‘Europe is doomed once China starts to bid for LNG’ story has been the go to story by doomsday sayers and other charlatans but we just don’t see it. Firstly let’s just compare the Chinese demand for LNG imports with Japan. 2023 has seen Japanese demand converging towards Chinese. Moving on to the average LNG import by China. In a lockdown year China […]
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The Energy Cable #9: Putting inventories into perspective
Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.
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The Energy Cable #8: How China uses the SPR to counter energy trends
China actively uses its reserves to fight price trends and currently BOTH the US and China release reserves simultaneously. This is more than enough to counter Russian production cuts. Here is why!
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The Energy Cable #7: Is Russia back in the driver’s seat in energy markets?
Is Russia back in the driver’s seat after the supply cut announced late last week? If China adds demand, while Russia cuts supply, it may be a bullish cocktail for energy.. But so far the truly bullish price action remains to be seen.
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The Energy Cable #6 Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up!
Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up! Here is the latest “Energy Cable” update on Natural Gas, Oil – and the overall energy complex with price signals and model based predictions. The only publication to cover this sector across geographies and asset classes. Enjoy!
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Trade idea: The REVERSE tax bomb for NOK – Buy USDNOK or EURNOK
Norges Bank is once again caught behind the curve in its FX management policy due to the landslide in Natural Gas prices. Unless Norges Bank immediately stops selling as many NOKs per day, the NOK selling pressure is likely going to continue.
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