There are signs of a pick-up in German activity in the details from the IFO survey. A long in Nat Gas looks increasingly compelling, while US Manufacturing keeps rebounding as well.
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
The sudden weakness in the USD adds to the list of positives for energy and commodities overall. Is the best possible bull setup now in place? We take a look.
Europe has seen some remarkable energy prices in recent days with record negative electricity prices in the North Western part of the continent, while Saudi Arabia strikes again and prolongs the supply cuts into August.
Will OPEC+ be able to rock the boat in energy markets again? Saudi Arabian budget break-evens are probably 5-7$ above current selling prices and MBS could be tempted to try and force the price higher again. The issue is that China is not playing ball and other OPEC+ members oppose further production cuts.
While OPEC+ tries their best to prop up prices via cutbacks on supply, demand is evidently still not as strong as oil bulls would’ve liked. Will the Chinese momentum pick up and deplete reserves and will the turn of summer in the northern hemisphere counter such effects?
The Chinese comeback is still very services based, which has proven to be an issue for the energy bull case. Will the Chinese momentum be reignited in H2 and where does it leave the energy space?
The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan Our price models are deteriorating under the surface. The oil and gas bull market is probably not around the corner. We look at risk/reward in the energy space in the context of the recessionary vibes stemming from the banking crisis. We know, we know … You are all focused on the banking drama in the US and its potential contagion to other markets. We wouldn’t want to let you down on a fresh Energy Cable, however we promise to be brief. Our latest model updates do not hint of a bull-market in energy around the corner. Rather the contrary. Let’s have a look at the risk/reward across oil, nat gas and metals in the context of the ongoing banking crisis. Steno Research: China bought as much energy as they usually do in 2022. Forget about the “reopening story” in Energy Loyal readers will know that we have remained very skeptical about the bullish outlook for energy on the back of the Chinese reopening. Lo and behold, we have some more data to back up that point. The ‘Europe is doomed once China starts to bid for LNG’ story has been the go to story by doomsday sayers and other charlatans but we just don’t see it. Firstly let’s just compare the Chinese demand for LNG imports with Japan. 2023 has seen Japanese demand converging towards Chinese. Moving on to the average LNG import by China. In a lockdown year China […]
Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.
China actively uses its reserves to fight price trends and currently BOTH the US and China release reserves simultaneously. This is more than enough to counter Russian production cuts. Here is why!
Is Russia back in the driver’s seat after the supply cut announced late last week? If China adds demand, while Russia cuts supply, it may be a bullish cocktail for energy.. But so far the truly bullish price action remains to be seen.
The Energy Cable #6 Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up!
Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up! Here is the latest “Energy Cable” update on Natural Gas, Oil – and the overall energy complex with price signals and model based predictions. The only publication to cover this sector across geographies and asset classes. Enjoy!
Norges Bank is once again caught behind the curve in its FX management policy due to the landslide in Natural Gas prices. Unless Norges Bank immediately stops selling as many NOKs per day, the NOK selling pressure is likely going to continue.