Welcome to 2024.

Everyone is buzzing with anticipation, predicting a highly favorable year for crypto. The general sentiment in the market suggests that 2024 will be a memorable year, drawing parallels to the positive environments witnessed in 2017 and 2021. Oh dear, such a year would be nice.

A year ago, things were quite different, though. The crypto landscape was overshadowed by the dramatic collapse of FTX in November 2022, making 2022 end on a rather bleak note. Despite the skepticism, 2023 turned out to be a surprisingly positive year for crypto. Beyond just price increases, noteworthy events included BlackRock filing for a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Looking back, the impressive performance in 2023 can be attributed to the lingering fear stemming from the FTX collapse in late 2022. The market, initially bearish at the start of 2023, witnessed a remarkable turnaround as selling pressure eased with no bulls left, resulting in a significant price reversal.

The big question now is whether the market will defy the New Year’s consensus once again in the coming months but in the opposite direction compared to last year. 

We believe this scenario is quite likely, especially until the Federal Reserve and other central banks potentially reduce interest rates. Afterward, increased liquidity will likely point the market upward, regardless of any negative elements thrown at it. Until then, the prevailing expectation of a repeat of the positive trends in 2017 and 2021 leaves little room for downside surprises, and any unexpected negative developments could have a substantial price impact. It simply appears that there are now no bears left.