The cryptocurrency industry is still buzzing with excitement after the recent approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs last week. As these ETFs have been trading for a week now, their current performance and net inflows are now available for our consumption. This analysis will focus more on visual charts and less on text, a departure from my usual style, as the market seems to have had its fill of lengthy discussions on ETFs, which now feels akin to listening to a repetitive story from a friend or, even more tiresome, your mother-in-law. Upon this quite hectic week in crypto, I hope you find this more chart-focused Crypto Moves refreshing (a nod to my dyslexia).

As we foresaw, the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETFs turned out to be a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” For detailed background, please refer to Crypto Moves #3 and Crypto Moves #10. The price of Bitcoin soared to $49,100 coinciding with the ETFs’ debut on Thursday, January 11th, only to dip on the second day of trading, leading to a gradual decline to its current price of $42,400. Ethereum, while losing some value in USD, has still made significant gains against Bitcoin since the ETFs were approved.

Looking ahead, we anticipate that Bitcoin will continue to experience a gradual decline over the coming weeks. We expect the market to realize that the ETFs are not a quick solution for a sudden influx of capital into Bitcoin, nor is there a compelling new narrative to take the place after the ETF excitement. In our assessment, if Bitcoin breaks the $42,000 support level, we might see its value drop below $40,000 quite rapidly, possibly reaching as low as $35,000 within the next month. During this time, we expect Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin.

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Price

Post-ETF approval, the usual premium on Coinbase has shifted to a discount.