Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About
In issue #17 of Crypto Moves, we described MicroStrategy’s co-founder and Chairman, Michael Saylor, as today’s Satoshi Nakamoto when it comes to Bitcoin narratives. While Satoshi Nakamoto was the creator of Bitcoin and the miner of its genesis block, Michael Saylor has emerged as a key leader in the last few years, promoting and supporting the current narratives that have driven Bitcoin to new peaks.
These narratives have primarily centered on Bitcoin being a store of value, especially as an inflation hedge and a safe haven during economic crises and geopolitical instability. These are roles traditionally associated with gold, leading many to dub Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’. I dove into a deep Twitter search and found a tweet by Saylor from February 23, 2022 – just a day before the Russian invasion of Ukraine – where he emphasized these very roles of Bitcoin.
“Nation state conflicts create uncertainty, constrain production, weaken currency, cripple trade, and undermine credit, making investments in debt & equity riskier and underscoring the benefit of converting treasury assets into pure digital energy. #Bitcoin”
These narratives have greatly benefited Bitcoin because they resonate with a wide audience and emerged just as the world was grappling with soaring inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions, lending credibility to their claims.
Some might argue that these narratives existed before Saylor became a prominent voice in the Bitcoin community. That may be true, but they were largely confined to niche Bitcoin circles. A narrative does not have much impact unless it is widely recognized and valued. By leveraging MicroStrategy’s platform as a publicly traded company and making substantial investments in Bitcoin, Saylor has given these narratives a level of credibility that was previously unmatched.
It is one thing to have relatable and advantageous narratives backed by a trusted figure or company. However, for these narratives to sustain long-term credibility, the asset itself must consistently fulfill those expectations. This is exactly what today’s edition of Crypto Moves explores.
Bitcoin does not currently function as a safe haven. According to our quantitative model, it behaves more like a risk-on asset, similar to technology stocks. However, there is potential for Bitcoin to become a safe haven in the future. At this point, there is evidence suggesting that Bitcoin effectively serves as an inflation hedge.
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