Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
This week’s 5 Things has a strong focus on Japan and the BOJ while it also touches on the equity market and lends the reader a look at our portfolio.
The developments in the Middle East have refueled the recession fears and markets are getting concerned due to the spike in term premiums. Is this a first taste of the recession sell-off coming? Here is how we deal with it.
USDJPY will probably be THE pair to watch, as a break of the 150 handle will be catastrophic for risk sentiment and the path for BoJ. Read what else to look out for in global macro in our 5 things to watch.
From the ongoing depletion of the Chinese US Treasury holdings, to the BoJ’s impact on global markets concluding with the $-liquidity impact of the ON RRP facility. Here’s a list of 10 MUST watch charts in macro.
While tension keeps mounting in the Middle East, we’ve decided to broaden the global macro-horizon. From rising pressures in Japanese policy and the preceding Asian currencies to monetary trends in EUR and USD, and everything in between. We break down this week’s most noteworthy developments.
Recession models are mostly based on manufacturing, which currently rebounds leading to the conclusion that the recession risk recedes? But are actual recession risks rather on the rise?
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our 5 Things We Watch, where we as always run through 5 interesting topics in global macro relevant to the current and near-term market actions. We’ll as usual be short and concise, covering what has already happened this week, as well as what will happen next.
Public deficits are running wild, while the risk of another war that needs ongoing funding is growing. US households have net bought loads of US Treasuries, but will they continue in light of ongoing disappointments?
BoJ likely intervened yesterday for the first time in a year, the American labor market looks stronger than feared and PBoC is looking to cope with domestic capital flights. Read more in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
We know the playbook from last year if the energy squeeze is just getting started. Rising demand/activity in the energy-intensive industry is a negative for the overall asset market in regions with scarce supply. Parity up next?
Hi and welcome to this free post where we wanted to touch upon uranium and nuclear energy since it has been a trending topic for a couple of weeks now. We pose 3 questions which we briefly try to answer in order to give you an idea where we are and what is going on in the uranium and nuclear space.
Markets are finally sensing that something is rotten in the economy. We have a look at what to stay on top of in the weeks to come.
Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and díscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
I am getting increasingly concerned about (at least) four things in the current global macro setup, which leaves prudent risk management in investing more relevant than usual.
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our weekly edition of 5 Things We Watch, where we take you through the 5 things we are currently keeping an eye on in the global macro landscape.
It is no secret that we have never been major fans of the overfitted ESG narrative in investing, but the market is now starting to chime in. Windmills suffer while Oil gains. Who would have thought a few years ago?
Our services week is hot and running, where we share our take on the rebound in manufacturing amidst a weakening in the services sector. Today we will share some of the takes we have looked at, as well as what lies ahead
Sticky inflation, renewed issues with high energy costs and a light recession in the making already. Europe screams stagflation and even the ECB admits to it. Meanwhile, we are edging closer to the actual payroll recession in the US.
The doves are back after yesterday’s job openings data which signaled a labor market cooling off, allowing consensus to favor a pause in September. As always, there are plenty of things to dive into in this week’s edition.
The “no-landing” camp is getting increasingly crowded and even if we do not rule such a scenario out, we find that the probability of outcomes is starting to favor a more conservative approach to risk taking.
What’s up in energy markets, will European inflation be below 2% before year-end, should we expect trouble to hit US real estate and how about the Yuan and its implications for global markets? Our two cents here.
The doom and gloom in China is suddenly back with a vengeance and everyone seems convinced that China is now in a structural decline driven by an embedded balance sheet recession and extremely weak demographics. But how bad is it really?
Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. Since we have not covered much else than China this week and the fact that it remains one of the key macro stories we thought we would exclusively zoom in on 5 things we watch related to China.
Either the commodity market is 100% wrong or else China is amidst a rebound. What does that mean for the hopes of getting inflation back to target? And will it impact the yield curve? Here are the three most important questions for investors right now!
Ahead of the CPI release tomorrow we zoom out to provide you with the bigger picture and what to watch out for in global macro over the next weeks.
The Bank of Japan has fueled a global curve steepening and the US Treasury is forced to emphasize the trend with substantial ramifications for liquidity, rates, FX and equities. Here is how we play it!
The US credit rating downgrade is making the rounds, but is it even relevant? We take a look at the empirical data alongside updates on the five things we watch currently in global macro.
We are now one step closer to a complete normalization of the monetary policy in Japan and I guess it is safe to say that the only thing that is normal in this cycle is that monetary policy returns to “normal”. The boomer trades are back!
It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?
