Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
Consensus is being torn apart from every direction—right, left, and center. This is typical in the early stages of a new trading year. So, what’s the current consensus, and how might it be wrongfooted? Let’s take a closer look!
We have complied a chart deck with our best charts on inflation and what to look out for in macro in 2025
We go into the year long equities, while being more neutral on US Fixed Income and the dollar. What are the key events to watch this week?
More US cuts for 2025 than anticipated by many?
Here’s a look at 2025 and how to trade macro. The short-term outlook remains heavily dependent on the debt ceiling, but there are reasons to be optimistic about risk assets in 2025.
Contrary to the current prevailing consensus, liquidity appears poised to improve significantly during January. The debt ceiling dynamics play a crucial role in this, as they directly influence the FOMC’s considerations.
We continue to observe soft surprises from the US economy, while momentum in China is outright collapsing according to our models. Below is the full Christmas overview of the economic calendar, along with guidance on how to trade and navigate it effectively.
Most risk-takers were caught off guard by Powell’s attempts to bring the Fed ahead of the hawkish repricing last week. Will this prove to be another incredibly ill-timed flip-flop from the Fed?
Markets are back discussing inflation fears ahead of 2025, but is it really such a big thing? The outcome space for 2025 is huge and I am personally torn between the 2007 and 2021 analogy for now.
The labor market report was weak enough to keep the Fed on an easing path but not weak enough to truly spook otherwise stretched risk asset markets. Here are four asymmetrical Santa Powell cases:
China is curbing exports of critical metals, while Russia plays hardball on uranium. The power vacuum between Biden and Trump is creating a wealth of tradable trends in commodities. Here’s your overview!
We’ve started to observe weaknesses in the US economy across our growth models, a major game changer with the ISM report and NFP coming up this week. Could weakness in the US economy prompt the Fed into a 25 bps cut in December? Odds are increasing for such a scenario.
The trend shift in fixed income is remarkable and sharply contrarian to the post-Trump consensus. We expect more of the same ahead, coupled with a firm decision by the Fed to support liquidity in December. Meanwhile, gold may see a catalyst.
The Chinese issuance of USD-denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia may seem negligible on the surface, but it holds significant signal value for the direction of the USD. If China feared a strong USD – or planned a devaluation – this would be an odd move. It could also signal a farewell to gold as a key strategic asset.
Markets are celebrating the appointment of Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary. He is seen as much more growth-friendly than markets feared—and he’s a snack for doves! But how will his policy initiatives affect markets, and are markets overreacting to the news? We’ve got you covered for the coming macro week!
Liquidity trends remain tighter than anticipated, primarily affecting government bond and repo markets. The current market frenzy actually needs a bit of bad news to provide the liquidity boost required to take the next step.
This week’s The Drill looks at commodities post Trump election where calmness has started to ensure as risks were too greatly priced.
Despite less data points from the US compared to last week, this week is packed with market-moving events: BoJ’s indecision stirs yen weakness this morning, NVIDIA’s earnings could light up the Nasdaq, and UK CPI may shift inflation expectations. Add rising US mortgage rates and housing data to the mix, and markets are set for a volatile ride. Stay sharp – opportunities abound.
The liquidity situation remains tight, and this cycle continues to defy the norm. Will activity and inflation return before Powell and his peers truly get the chance to inject liquidity again?
A few wobbly days over the past 48 hours have left markets and pundits debating whether the Trump trade is exhausted. We view this as a dip to load up on.
While markets try to digest the effect of the inflation prints and the Republican Sweep – we stick to our trade: long U.S. over Germany equity trade amidst Germany’s political and China-exposure headwinds looks like a no-brainer.
Suddenly everyone from bond to equity investors are talking about asset swaps in Germany. How should we read the latest signals from the ECB? Is QT close to ending?
We are writing history at the moment as EUR liquidity is getting more sought after than USD liquidity. This is a rare event in financial markets, and probably also a sign that the ECB is about to take it too far with QT.
Is Germany at risk of turning into a French bond/equity case in line with what happened after Macron called for snap elections earlier this year? Let’s dive into the details of the German case here.
The Trump trade is roaring in financial markets, but how will China navigate the turbulence? Should we expect a major fiscal announcement on Friday, or perhaps a conciliatory approach to try and avoid tariffs? And what is happening in German politics?
Probably the most deciding week this year for guiding the US and worldwide economies with the US election on Tuesday as well as a Fed decision on Thursday expected, with the ever more possibility of ending QT early
Sovereign bond markets are performing poorly, even following bond market-friendly releases. What on earth is going on? Are we approaching another ‘whatever-it-takes’ moment from the G3 central banks?
The Steno Research Macro Portfolio is live, equipping you to take your investing skills to the next level. Check it out!
Our thought on 4 important things to look out for for next week’s US election.
The stimulus being prepared by the NPC for announcement next week seems more like the work of a marketing agency than an economic council. While the numbers are substantial, it’s more of a debt swap than a true stimulus package. Here’s why!