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Steno Signals

Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.

Week at a Glance – The most important NFP print of them all?

The Week at a Glance: Manufacturing Rebound, Fed Liquidity Signals & Oil’s Fragile Balance

We’ve started to observe weaknesses in the US economy across our growth models, a major game changer with the ISM report and NFP coming up this week. Could weakness in the US economy prompt the Fed into a 25 bps cut in December? Odds are increasing for such a scenario.

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Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?

The trend shift in fixed income is remarkable and sharply contrarian to the post-Trump consensus. We expect more of the same ahead, coupled with a firm decision by the Fed to support liquidity in December. Meanwhile, gold may see a catalyst.

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China Watch: Forget About the BRICS Currency – China Wants to Impact the USD from Within

China Watch: Forget About the BRICS Currency – China Wants to Impact the USD from Within

The Chinese issuance of USD-denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia may seem negligible on the surface, but it holds significant signal value for the direction of the USD. If China feared a strong USD – or planned a devaluation – this would be an odd move. It could also signal a farewell to gold as a key strategic asset.

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Week at a Glance – The most important NFP print of them all?

The Week at a Glance – Bessent’s Agenda, Fed Minutes, Core PCE, and EU HICP in Focus

Markets are celebrating the appointment of Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary. He is seen as much more growth-friendly than markets feared—and he’s a snack for doves! But how will his policy initiatives affect markets, and are markets overreacting to the news? We’ve got you covered for the coming macro week!

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Week at a Glance – The most important NFP print of them all?

The Week at a Glance – The largest company about to report – fuel for the Nasdaq bet?

Despite less data points from the US compared to last week, this week is packed with market-moving events: BoJ’s indecision stirs yen weakness this morning, NVIDIA’s earnings could light up the Nasdaq, and UK CPI may shift inflation expectations. Add rising US mortgage rates and housing data to the mix, and markets are set for a volatile ride. Stay sharp – opportunities abound.

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