The ECB Hawks have taken significant steps towards a forthcoming policy pivot. But what if they remain on the backfoot?
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As the Head of Research, Emil's expertise encompasses a diverse background mainly in Economics and agricultural economics, further bolstered by his extensive experience in Finance. Professionally he has primarily thrived as a trader for a family office, gaining valuable insights into the financial landscape. In addition to his practical involvement in the Markets, Emil's linguistic abilities as a polyglot enhance his role as the editor of the weekly EM by EM series. Moreover, he plays a pivotal role as the guiding econ/finance anchor on the "Watch Series"
Something for your Espresso: Consumers Last Stand?
As ISM services data is set to be released today, we will take a closer look at the Black Friday spending trends and the current situation in Europe. Read our Morning report below
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Something for your Espresso: Nerves of Ambiguity
December is here and our Monday morning reflections are put to paper. Read them below!
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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?
We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
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EM by EM #32: Keep calm & Carry Lira?
Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
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Something for your Espresso: Ueda’s next step
While our main focus today is EUR inflation we thought we would spend the morning report reflecting on the current dynamics between the Fed and BoJ. Read along below
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Something for your Espresso: The common ground for Sino-US relations
There is extensive discussion about “decoupling” between the West and China, but many seem to overlook the bigger picture. Read our morning post below
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Portfolio Watch: The last dance?
We have taken the unpopular decision of being net long USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning below
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EM by EM #31: It’s time for Milei to grapple with the real world
We still don’t have much faith in Argentine dollarization, and it seems that the markets have jumped the gun. The real question is whether Milei has also followed suit?
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Something for your Espresso: Cracks starting to show?
Europe, China, and OPEC are all in the midst of crisis management on Thanksgiving. Read or morning thoughts below
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Out of the Box #24 : Too little too late Powell?
A “hump” may be on the way in the US economy but can the Fed steer clear of the gathering storm, while Chairman Powell has left the market in front of the monetary policy wheel? We remain skeptical
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Something for your Espresso: Effortless rally or a perilous complacency?
Risk continues to rally, and the November party shows no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the geopolitical landscape appears to be increasingly accommodating, while Germany is facing domestic challenges. Read our Morning take below
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Something for your Espresso: Time to fade?
Time to fade the risk rally or is december the last domino? Read our morning thoughts below
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Trade alert: Taking profits in Germany
We have closed a profitable long with a double digit return
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EM by EM #30 Pick-up from King Carry?
China is still in a state of crisis but perhaps recent dove-vibe in the US could sustain the run of some of the 2023 FX winners? Read our take below
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Something for your Espresso: Relief, but hardly a revival
The House seems to have avoided a shutdown for now, and the CPI data is bringing relief to the Fed and fueling celebrations in the markets. Read our morning thoughts below
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Something for your Espresso: From CPI to ICU?
Today marks the release of the US CPI, and it appears that the factors contributing to the recent disinflationary trend are losing their strength. However, it’s likely that assistance will arrive in due course, although the remedy may be less comfortable than the ailment itself …
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Portfolio Watch: Staying afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
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EM by EM #29: Biden’s party, EM’s hangover & Scholz’s nightmare
The recent howler of 30y UST auction made yields spike and has served as a reality check for the brief optimism in emerging markets. But we refuese to concede to the negativity – We illustrate the long-term prospects for Latin America in the new deglobalized order below
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Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs
The US fiscal trajectory is unsustainable and will require resolution, but does it inevitably entail excessively high-interest rates for “longer”? We have our doubts.
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Something for your Espreso: Crude Capitulation?
Oil and bonds have recently taken divergent paths, and we believe it’s worth pondering the factors behind this recent price action. Read our morning thoughts below
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Something for your Espresso: No market for Old men
There are plenty of “real economy” red flags in recent price action. Coupled with signs of financial stress, we believe our recession case is increasingly supported.
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Something for your Espresso: On track or off the rails?
While Korea is banning short selling, the US appears to be increasingly recessionary. Distortions and oddities persist, causing ambiguous data prints, all very characteristic of the post-COVID cycle. Read our latest morning thoughts below.
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Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?
Last week’s rally was truly remarkable, especially considering the months of hardship that most assets endured prior. Could this be the long-awaited revenge of the longs, with short covering poised to dominate the price action in the days ahead? Dive into our analysis below to find out.
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Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?
A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks
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EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight
The Chinese Stimulus will likely prove to be false flag and Yellen & Powell looks to have killed the USD streak. Read below for our thoughts on it and how we will likely play it
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Something for your Espresso: The End of the Cycle and the Last Man
While the overarching momentum of the economic cycle is undoubtedly disinflationary, the United States stands out as the last man. Meanwhile China is in a crisis of its own. Read our morning report below
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Positioning Watch: Who blinks first?
These days, everything seems to be in motion, but not all at the same pace of change. Dive into our inaugural Monday edition of Positioning Watch below to discern the disparities
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EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun
The long awaited stimulus package is here! But it is anything but overwhelming… Read our takeaways here
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Out of the Box #22: Higher for longer, yes. But not what you expect
Lots of talk of “higher for longer” as rates keep jacking up. I am a beliver of a different “higher for longer” however. Read here which
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