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Something for your Espresso: No market for Old men

There are plenty of "real economy" red flags in recent price action. Coupled with signs of financial stress, we believe our recession case is increasingly supported.
2023-11-08

Good morning from Europe!

We have recently concluded our activities in Asia, and it appears that the session we have engaged in holds significant interest.

The Topix Japanese bank index has witnessed a decline of over 4%. The price movement closely resembles what we observed back in March. This suggests that either the market had been anticipating an early tightening that is now losing momentum, or we may be facing a broader risk-off sentiment linked to systemic risks.

Regardless of the scenario, we will closely monitor these developments and their potential impact on the banking sector during the Western session. We maintain our short position on Canadian banks.

Chart 1:  Topix index, Price action

 

There are plenty of “real economy” red flags in recent price action. Coupled with signs of financial stress, we believe our recession case is increasingly supported.

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