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Something for your Espresso: The End of the Cycle and the Last Man

While the overarching momentum of the economic cycle is undoubtedly disinflationary, the United States stands out as the last man. Meanwhile China is in a crisis of its own. Read our morning report below
2023-11-01

Good morning from Europe!

It would seem our Japan prediction came to fruition but as I am sure many of you are well aware the price action in FX has been a bit volatile and while the yen has taken a punch as we expected Kanda from the Finance Ministery has managed to calm the Yen sell-off with rhetoric. On the other hand, the BoJ has already piled into JGB’s.

And the market? Still anticipating further selling. We still think that odds are skewed toward a further weakening of the Yen as the BoJ is unlikely to be done with its debt purchases, but we will be following the situation closely in the coming days

Chart 1: Japan, 10Y yields vs 10Y swaps

 

While the overarching momentum of the economic cycle is undoubtedly disinflationary, the United States stands out as the last man. Meanwhile China is in a crisis of its own. Read our morning report below

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