Reciprocal tariffs will put markets on the back foot right from the start of the week, leaving certain EMs highly vulnerable, while Europe remains well-positioned. Setting the noise aside, the 2025 cycle looks very promising.
Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)
What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, it seems we’re still early in the business cycle—and things are accelerating once again.
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Steno Signals #176 – Will 2025 be 2007 or 2021 all over again?
Markets are back discussing inflation fears ahead of 2025, but is it really such a big thing? The outcome space for 2025 is huge and I am personally torn between the 2007 and 2021 analogy for now.
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Steno Signals #175 – 4 asymmetrical cases for Santa Powell
The labor market report was weak enough to keep the Fed on an easing path but not weak enough to truly spook otherwise stretched risk asset markets. Here are four asymmetrical Santa Powell cases:
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Portfolio Watch: The outlook is brightening into October
There is currently an almost goldilocksy vibe in the air, which could continue throughout October. The outlook is brightening short-term and we are loading up on risk.
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Portfolio Watch: Short metals and Europe but long (US) liquidity sensitive assets
The French election risks leave Europe uninvestable from an equity perspective for now, which leaves opportunities ahead in USD markets. We continue to see strong performance in USD liquidity sensitive trades paired with softness in commodities.
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Business Cycle Watch – What if ISM Manufacturing rises to 56?
Despite the ISM figure for May showing weakness, there are numerous signs from both the market and forward looking indicators that we are in for a substantial boom in manufacturing. What should you buy if that’s the case? Find out here.
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Portfolio Watch: Trading the next of the rolling melt-ups
Liquidity will improve markedly from 16th of June and onwards, while we continue to see rolling melt-ups in real world assets. We see an increasing risk of a new melt up in commodity space.
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Trade Alert: Going long and short in commodity space
On how to trade the rolling melt-up in commodity space relatively speaking..
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Trade Alert: Going long the Manufacturing Metal
We see an improving Manufacturing sentiment as a decent bet for 2024 and this trade typically loves such an environment.
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Portfolio Watch: What if we add a rate cut to this fire..
The cyclical rotation is slowly but surely rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.
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Something for your Espresso: Melt UP!
The ongoing AI wave has been spiced up with signs of procyclical data releases and improving fundamentals in Manufacturing and global trade. Where does it leave us globally?
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Energy Watch: Is Nat Gas THE macro case of 2024?
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
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Trade Alert: Betting on a cyclical comeback
Forward-looking indicators are telling us that the cyclical momentum will return. Here is how we trade it!
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Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD just break?
Sudden sharp moves against the USD after Powell let go of the monetary steering wheel. Will the Fed take back control or has the USD already peaked? This is the key question in global macro before New Years.
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5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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Portfolio Watch: Equities running out of Gas?
We remain tilted towards a positive energy performance, a steeper USD curve, but now also risk sentiment weakness and some pockets of performance in European duration. Here is why!
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Trade Alert: Exploiting the weaknesses in Japan
Japan is one of the most energy sensitive countries in the world and the BoJ is not (truly) willing to underpin the JPY. We aim at exploiting this in a RV trade in Asia.
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Portfolio Watch: Waiting for Godot, Powell and 7.30
We see the risk outlook as extraordinarily binary at this juncture. Either the cyclical green shoots continue to get the upper hand or else we are likely headed for a recessionary type of asset environment.
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Trade Alert: Time to go down (under)!
We add to our cyclical bets in FX space with a few idiosyncratic reasons for this position as well.
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Positioning Watch – Nasdaq positioning is LONG again
Our positioning watch is back! Find out whether you lean with or against the wind in this weekly publication.
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Something for your Espresso: The deposit flight continues
Both weekly and daily indicators of deposit flight continued to show signs of money leaving the banking system for money market funds, while banks continue to underperform. Will the Fed come to accept new all-time highs for the balance sheet?
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