The ongoing AI wave has been spiced up with signs of procyclical data releases and improving fundamentals in Manufacturing and global trade. Where does it leave us globally?
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
Forward-looking indicators are telling us that the cyclical momentum will return. Here is how we trade it!
Sudden sharp moves against the USD after Powell let go of the monetary steering wheel. Will the Fed take back control or has the USD already peaked? This is the key question in global macro before New Years.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
We remain tilted towards a positive energy performance, a steeper USD curve, but now also risk sentiment weakness and some pockets of performance in European duration. Here is why!
Japan is one of the most energy sensitive countries in the world and the BoJ is not (truly) willing to underpin the JPY. We aim at exploiting this in a RV trade in Asia.
We see the risk outlook as extraordinarily binary at this juncture. Either the cyclical green shoots continue to get the upper hand or else we are likely headed for a recessionary type of asset environment.
We add to our cyclical bets in FX space with a few idiosyncratic reasons for this position as well.
Our positioning watch is back! Find out whether you lean with or against the wind in this weekly publication.
Both weekly and daily indicators of deposit flight continued to show signs of money leaving the banking system for money market funds, while banks continue to underperform. Will the Fed come to accept new all-time highs for the balance sheet?