The inflation divergence theme is growing in importance, while the Rest of the World is catching up (or down) to the US in terms of financial conditions. Here is how we position for it..
Portfolio Watch: What if we add a rate cut to this fire..
The cyclical rotation is slowly but surely rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.
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Energy Cable #52: Suez Troubles or a Houthi peace deal with Shipping companies?
Have Shipping companies suddenly made a deal with the Houthis? It sounds unlikely to us, and we will address why in this Suez Special of our Energy Cable publication.
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Steno Signals #77 – Oil demand is ALL TIME HIGH
Judging from the most recent data evidence, it remains hard to see the cracks in the US economy even if they continue to appear in various forward-looking indicators. The oil demand was for example all-time-high in week 48.
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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?
We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
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5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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Steno Signals #73 – An abysmal impulse for 2024
We are currently “riding” a few of the positive impulses from lower input prices over the past year, but the impulses for 2024 do not look good and the positivity is likely going to be short-lived with rates volatility back.
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5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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Credit Watch: The worst is behind us in the SLOOS, but…
The SLOOS is starting to improve sequentially, which bodes well for the hopes of a shallow 2024 recession.. but a wave of bankruptcies is likely still incoming, while it is hard to see credit and equity markets celebrating meanwhile
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Out of the Box #22: Higher for longer, yes. But not what you expect
Lots of talk of “higher for longer” as rates keep jacking up. I am a beliver of a different “higher for longer” however. Read here which
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Macro Nugget: Why Argentina won’t dollarise
Massa takes the first round but war is not over. We provide our view on the state of affairs in Argentina from a risk-taking perspective
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Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro
From the ongoing depletion of the Chinese US Treasury holdings, to the BoJ’s impact on global markets concluding with the $-liquidity impact of the ON RRP facility. Here’s a list of 10 MUST watch charts in macro.
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Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity
Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what’s on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet… Read this week’s Macro Nugget below
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Macro Nugget: The Eurozone horserace
The Eurozone bear case seems to finally be playing out but what is the current state in Europe? Bleak and divided are two words that spring to mind.
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EM by EM #23 Playing the least dirty laundry vs the dirtiest
When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
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Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worry me the most in global macro right now
I am getting increasingly concerned about (at least) four things in the current global macro setup, which leaves prudent risk management in investing more relevant than usual.
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Out of the Box #18: Time for the second inflation wave? AAAAAAH!
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
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Services Week: Will Services now turn into the weakest link of the economy?
When input costs subside for Manufacturers but not for Service companies, the overall economic momentum moves in favour of the Manufacturers. This is most likely the juncture we are at.
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5 things we watch: Downgrades, Cyclicals, Oil, JGBs and GDP/GDI
The US credit rating downgrade is making the rounds, but is it even relevant? We take a look at the empirical data alongside updates on the five things we watch currently in global macro.
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Something for your Espresso: The 5 most important charts for the week
A massive key figure week is ahead of us, and we highlight the five most important charts to watch from a macroeconomic perspective.
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Macro Regime Indicator: The global liquidity outlook is worsening..
We have updated our liquidity models and found a relatively firm shift from benign- to tighter liquidity conditions ahead in May and June. How will changing liquidity impact markets in USD, EUR, JPY and CNY? Let’s have a look at it.
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EM by EM #2 – Don’t fight the Xi
Following the publication of my EM by EM debut piece, where I highlighted the attractive set-up for Brazilian sovereigns (which thus far have fared well), we now shift our focus across the Pacific to Beijing.
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Steno Signals #37: Revisiting the macro regime indicators considering recent developments
February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.
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5 things we watch: Higher(er) for longer(er), the consumer, core price pressures, energy prices and cyclicals
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
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Steno Signals #33: The USD liquidity cushion is alive and well
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
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Steno Signals #28 – 2 reasons to begin 2023 with a bit of equity exposure
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.
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