February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.

February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.