February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.
5 things we watch: Higher(er) for longer(er), the consumer, core price pressures, energy prices and cyclicals
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
Steno Signals #33: The USD liquidity cushion is alive and well
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
Steno Signals #28 – 2 reasons to begin 2023 with a bit of equity exposure
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.