When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worry me the most in global macro right now
I am getting increasingly concerned about (at least) four things in the current global macro setup, which leaves prudent risk management in investing more relevant than usual.
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Out of the Box #18: Time for the second inflation wave? AAAAAAH!
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
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Services Week: Will Services now turn into the weakest link of the economy?
When input costs subside for Manufacturers but not for Service companies, the overall economic momentum moves in favour of the Manufacturers. This is most likely the juncture we are at.
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5 things we watch: Downgrades, Cyclicals, Oil, JGBs and GDP/GDI
The US credit rating downgrade is making the rounds, but is it even relevant? We take a look at the empirical data alongside updates on the five things we watch currently in global macro.
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Something for your Espresso: The 5 most important charts for the week
A massive key figure week is ahead of us, and we highlight the five most important charts to watch from a macroeconomic perspective.
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Macro Regime Indicator: The global liquidity outlook is worsening..
We have updated our liquidity models and found a relatively firm shift from benign- to tighter liquidity conditions ahead in May and June. How will changing liquidity impact markets in USD, EUR, JPY and CNY? Let’s have a look at it.
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EM by EM #2 – Don’t fight the Xi
Following the publication of my EM by EM debut piece, where I highlighted the attractive set-up for Brazilian sovereigns (which thus far have fared well), we now shift our focus across the Pacific to Beijing.
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Steno Signals #37: Revisiting the macro regime indicators considering recent developments
February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.
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5 things we watch: Higher(er) for longer(er), the consumer, core price pressures, energy prices and cyclicals
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
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Steno Signals #33: The USD liquidity cushion is alive and well
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
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Steno Signals #28 – 2 reasons to begin 2023 with a bit of equity exposure
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.
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