Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
Business Cycle Watch – Recession or rebound?
An interesting gap is emerging between GDP and GDI, which in theory should be 2 conceptually equal measures of domestic output. Who’s right and who’s wrong? And where does this place us in the business cycle?
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Steno Signals #58 – Rebound or recession? Or both?
We are at macro crossroads as markets start to chase a cyclical rebound in the economy. Is a cyclical rebound a true possibility or is this the famous fatamorgana of a soft landing just before the actual recession kicks in?
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Commodity Watch – A rebound in the most cyclical asset class?
With the possibility of the manufacturing sector rebounding, commodities might be in for a ride as demand increases in a tight market.
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Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading
Earlier this week we identified possible curtain-raisers on near-term developments in US manufacturing, and with parts of the Philly Fed Survey backing our findings, what can be expected for equities?
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Rates Watch: Will curves bear-steepen if the cyclical rebound is confirmed?
If we indeed get a short-term cyclical rebound, the yield curve is going to be tested. Does a hugely inverted curve rhyme with a rebound in manufacturing? Probably not. Let’s have a look at it.
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FX Watch: Have FX markets sniffed out an upcoming rebound?
USD weakness paired with an uptrend in cyclical currencies sounds like the perfect rebound cocktail, but can FX markets rightfully reveal turning points in the economic cycle? Let’s have a look at the current pricing and the historical evidence.
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US Manufacturing Watch: Indicators point to a cyclical rebound
The economic activity in goods manufacturing has been contracting since October 2022 according to the ISM reports, but contrary to the latest figure (46) select indicators hint of a possible cyclical rebound.
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