The manufacturing rebound in H1 2024 was another head-fake, and we were correct in predicting that everyone would call off the recession. Now, the market is likely going to “reprice” the recession risk again.
Business Cycle Watch: Why Sweden’s Resurging Momentum is a Must Watch
With the first rate cut now in effect, the Swedish economy has suddenly become an interesting “lab” for observing cyclical growth and inflation trends. All indicators point to a re-acceleration in Sweden, which the rest of the world will likely follow.
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Steno Signals #109 – What if we are all wrong on liquidity, rates and commodities?
What if the Fed is wrong, we are wrong, and the consensus is wrong? Here’s a look at liquidity, rates, and commodities amidst a macro landscape with a very broad outcome space for the coming 12-18 months.
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Business Cycle Watch – What if ISM Manufacturing rises to 56?
Despite the ISM figure for May showing weakness, there are numerous signs from both the market and forward looking indicators that we are in for a substantial boom in manufacturing. What should you buy if that’s the case? Find out here.
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Something for your Espresso: Second-guessing the next (growth) narrative
It’s make or break time for the US economy as the “recessionistas” are back in the driver’s seat ahead of the ISM Services release. Rates markets will be monster sensitive to the release later today.
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Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle
The fake business cycle keeps surprising markets and central banks and the volatility in the cyclical components of the economy will likely keep markets trading from one extreme to another in coming years.
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Something for your Espresso: The US is accelerating, what’s next?
The market consensus is turning more and more upbeat on 2024 forecasts for the US economy, but what about China and Germany?
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Something for your Espresso: Melt UP!
The ongoing AI wave has been spiced up with signs of procyclical data releases and improving fundamentals in Manufacturing and global trade. Where does it leave us globally?
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Trade Alert: Betting on a cyclical comeback
Forward-looking indicators are telling us that the cyclical momentum will return. Here is how we trade it!
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Steno Signals #87 – Inflation is BACK! Position accordingly..
Both input- and output prices have flared up in the US and the 2024 consensus on rates and inflation is blown into smithereens. What’s next?
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Out of the Box #24 : Too little too late Powell?
A “hump” may be on the way in the US economy but can the Fed steer clear of the gathering storm, while Chairman Powell has left the market in front of the monetary policy wheel? We remain skeptical
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Out of the Box #17 How would US exceptionalism flip the table for the RoW?
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
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Business Cycle Watch – Recession or rebound?
An interesting gap is emerging between GDP and GDI, which in theory should be 2 conceptually equal measures of domestic output. Who’s right and who’s wrong? And where does this place us in the business cycle?
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Steno Signals #58 – Rebound or recession? Or both?
We are at macro crossroads as markets start to chase a cyclical rebound in the economy. Is a cyclical rebound a true possibility or is this the famous fatamorgana of a soft landing just before the actual recession kicks in?
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Commodity Watch – A rebound in the most cyclical asset class?
With the possibility of the manufacturing sector rebounding, commodities might be in for a ride as demand increases in a tight market.
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Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading
Earlier this week we identified possible curtain-raisers on near-term developments in US manufacturing, and with parts of the Philly Fed Survey backing our findings, what can be expected for equities?
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Rates Watch: Will curves bear-steepen if the cyclical rebound is confirmed?
If we indeed get a short-term cyclical rebound, the yield curve is going to be tested. Does a hugely inverted curve rhyme with a rebound in manufacturing? Probably not. Let’s have a look at it.
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FX Watch: Have FX markets sniffed out an upcoming rebound?
USD weakness paired with an uptrend in cyclical currencies sounds like the perfect rebound cocktail, but can FX markets rightfully reveal turning points in the economic cycle? Let’s have a look at the current pricing and the historical evidence.
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US Manufacturing Watch: Indicators point to a cyclical rebound
The economic activity in goods manufacturing has been contracting since October 2022 according to the ISM reports, but contrary to the latest figure (46) select indicators hint of a possible cyclical rebound.
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