With the first rate cut now in effect, the Swedish economy has suddenly become an interesting “lab” for observing cyclical growth and inflation trends. All indicators point to a re-acceleration in Sweden, which the rest of the world will likely follow.
What if the Fed is wrong, we are wrong, and the consensus is wrong? Here’s a look at liquidity, rates, and commodities amidst a macro landscape with a very broad outcome space for the coming 12-18 months.
Despite the ISM figure for May showing weakness, there are numerous signs from both the market and forward looking indicators that we are in for a substantial boom in manufacturing. What should you buy if that’s the case? Find out here.
It’s make or break time for the US economy as the “recessionistas” are back in the driver’s seat ahead of the ISM Services release. Rates markets will be monster sensitive to the release later today.
The fake business cycle keeps surprising markets and central banks and the volatility in the cyclical components of the economy will likely keep markets trading from one extreme to another in coming years.
The market consensus is turning more and more upbeat on 2024 forecasts for the US economy, but what about China and Germany?
The ongoing AI wave has been spiced up with signs of procyclical data releases and improving fundamentals in Manufacturing and global trade. Where does it leave us globally?
Forward-looking indicators are telling us that the cyclical momentum will return. Here is how we trade it!
Both input- and output prices have flared up in the US and the 2024 consensus on rates and inflation is blown into smithereens. What’s next?
A “hump” may be on the way in the US economy but can the Fed steer clear of the gathering storm, while Chairman Powell has left the market in front of the monetary policy wheel? We remain skeptical
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
An interesting gap is emerging between GDP and GDI, which in theory should be 2 conceptually equal measures of domestic output. Who’s right and who’s wrong? And where does this place us in the business cycle?
We are at macro crossroads as markets start to chase a cyclical rebound in the economy. Is a cyclical rebound a true possibility or is this the famous fatamorgana of a soft landing just before the actual recession kicks in?
With the possibility of the manufacturing sector rebounding, commodities might be in for a ride as demand increases in a tight market.
Earlier this week we identified possible curtain-raisers on near-term developments in US manufacturing, and with parts of the Philly Fed Survey backing our findings, what can be expected for equities?
If we indeed get a short-term cyclical rebound, the yield curve is going to be tested. Does a hugely inverted curve rhyme with a rebound in manufacturing? Probably not. Let’s have a look at it.
USD weakness paired with an uptrend in cyclical currencies sounds like the perfect rebound cocktail, but can FX markets rightfully reveal turning points in the economic cycle? Let’s have a look at the current pricing and the historical evidence.
The economic activity in goods manufacturing has been contracting since October 2022 according to the ISM reports, but contrary to the latest figure (46) select indicators hint of a possible cyclical rebound.
