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US Bank Watch – 3 arguments for the inevitability of more banking failures

US Bank Watch – 3 arguments for the inevitability of more banking failures

The higher-for-longer crowd has rightfully been celebrating as the short end of the curve has reached pre-SVB levels. We find that structurally nothing has changed and that 10 years of ZIRP being replaced by unprecedented and unpredictable rate hikes is still bound to bring more pressure on banking and here’s why.

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Steno Signals #49 – Everything related to the deposit crisis keeps worsening beneath the hood

Steno Signals #49 – Everything related to the deposit crisis keeps worsening beneath the hood

Given the lack of an imminent economic crash risk, bond bears have been back in the driver’s seat. No news is bond bearish news, which in turn is likely to exacerbate the already worsening root cause of the deposit crisis. We are on high alert for the ramifications of the price action in the USD.

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Macro Watch: The one on regulation, FDIC incentives and cutting cycles

Macro Watch: The one on regulation, FDIC incentives and cutting cycles

The ECB and the Fed keep referring to sound and resilient conditions in banking as they obviously need to. Beneath the surface, a cocktail of mediocre regulation, bizarre incentives and complacent authorities is likely to guide us into a continued bank crisis until rates come down. Here is why!

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5 Things We Watch: Brazil, Italy, CNY, DAX and EU Banking Crisis

5 Things We Watch: The return of the banking crisis, Japan, China, Liquidity and Euro Inflation

The banking crisis seems to be back, Asia is apparently the new black, and the hopes of an economic comeback in the West is vanishing. Things are certainly not as we thought a couple of months ago, but follow along as we look at the best hideouts in this week’s edition.

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US Bank Watch – 3 arguments for the inevitability of more banking failures

Money Watch: How do we track deposit flights?

While good old balance sheet data is only available once banks publish their books, we have looked up metrics reported more frequently, which you can follow to give you an overview of just how bad conditions are for banks.

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Something for your Espresso: March 23 PTSD

Something for your Espresso: Bye bye to AT1 investors

Another hectic week is in the making and we don’t find risks to be contained yet. The Fed is likely to hike on Wednesday even if markets are screaming that they should rather cut. The first stages of the crisis playbook are playing out. The next will be true pivots from central banks.