The NYCB scare made for an almost PTSD like reaction in cross-asset markets. So far, we consider the story a non-event and put more emphasis on the guidance from Powell.
US Bank Watch – 3 arguments for the inevitability of more banking failures
The higher-for-longer crowd has rightfully been celebrating as the short end of the curve has reached pre-SVB levels. We find that structurally nothing has changed and that 10 years of ZIRP being replaced by unprecedented and unpredictable rate hikes is still bound to bring more pressure on banking and here’s why.
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5 Things We Watch: Brazil, Italy, CNY, DAX and EU Banking Crisis
Is Brazil a hideout in the current environment? How will Italy refinance its debt? Is it time for CNY to head lower? Have we seen the top in DAX? And will the banking crisis move to Europe? Find the answers here.
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Steno Signals #49 – Everything related to the deposit crisis keeps worsening beneath the hood
Given the lack of an imminent economic crash risk, bond bears have been back in the driver’s seat. No news is bond bearish news, which in turn is likely to exacerbate the already worsening root cause of the deposit crisis. We are on high alert for the ramifications of the price action in the USD.
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5 Things We Watch: Inflation, Real Estate, Banking Crisis, Credit and Euro Weakness
Wednesday is back, and so is the weekly post where we highlight what we are currently spending our time looking at. Don’t miss out on the crucial tendencies in global macro presented in this shorter piece!
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Macro Watch: The one on regulation, FDIC incentives and cutting cycles
The ECB and the Fed keep referring to sound and resilient conditions in banking as they obviously need to. Beneath the surface, a cocktail of mediocre regulation, bizarre incentives and complacent authorities is likely to guide us into a continued bank crisis until rates come down. Here is why!
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5 Things We Watch: The return of the banking crisis, Japan, China, Liquidity and Euro Inflation
The banking crisis seems to be back, Asia is apparently the new black, and the hopes of an economic comeback in the West is vanishing. Things are certainly not as we thought a couple of months ago, but follow along as we look at the best hideouts in this week’s edition.
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Something for your Espresso: So, the banking crisis wasn’t over after all?
First Republic Bank seems like a dead man walking, and the stress is all the sudden bank after banking reports show a decline in deposits – BOTH in Europe and in the US.
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Something for your Espresso: A week of can kicking on the cards?
This week’s economic data is unlikely to be able to rock the narrative in a major way. We watch permits, LEI, and South Korean trade data, but find it unlikely that the crisis mood is going to resurface.
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Something for your Espresso: What is the status on this bank crisis?
Flows into money market funds are slowing, while only survey data truly hints of an upcoming credit crunch. Watch the H8 data on bank balance sheets end of business today.
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Steno Signals #42 – 4 take-aways from investor meetings in New York
Back after a great week in The Big Apple. Investors have four major themes on their radar as I see it. Today we digest those themes and asses how to trade them! Enjoy
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Money Watch: How do we track deposit flights?
While good old balance sheet data is only available once banks publish their books, we have looked up metrics reported more frequently, which you can follow to give you an overview of just how bad conditions are for banks.
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Steno Signals #41 – Deutsche, Deustche alles ist vorbei?
Deustche Bank is selling off rapidly without an evident trigger event. What is going on? Is the crisis spreading to Europe and will it turn into a credit crisis? We look at the situation here and find more and more reasons to be worried.
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5 things we watch: Deposit flights, lending standards, liquidity, peak rates and PMIs
It’s been another of those macro weeks that makes you 10 years older in a matter of days. We look at the timeliest indicators of the deposit flight crisis and assess how to deal with it.
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Banking Crisis Liveblog Week 2 – Credit Suisse
The banking crisis continues and we’re covering it live here on StenoResearch.com! Bookmark this page and we’ll keep you posted throughout the week.
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Something for your Espresso: Bye bye to AT1 investors
Another hectic week is in the making and we don’t find risks to be contained yet. The Fed is likely to hike on Wednesday even if markets are screaming that they should rather cut. The first stages of the crisis playbook are playing out. The next will be true pivots from central banks.
Steno Signals #40 – The banking crisis is likely to accelerate in coming weeks
The banking crisis will continue to rage until the Fed and the ECB accept the underlying reason for the deposit flight. Banks cannot cope with an über-inverted yield curve, why cuts are needed asap to contain the situation. It will likely get worse before it gets better.
Something for your Espresso: The rates roller-coaster
Up, down, up, down. Front-end rates are schizophrenic these days and the hiking cycle is close to being over consequently. The banking crisis “complicates communication”.
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