What a week in London and New York, respectively. I truly enjoyed meeting a lot of a members and institutional clients to discuss the market outlook amidst this interesting macro backdrop. The mood is still mixed, but there are no signs of an actual major crisis brewing based on my discussions with major institutional players. Is the consensus getting too complacent again?

Here are the four themes on the forefront of all discussions I had with asset allocators in the US. In the following I will elaborate on what I find to be the market consensus and how we position relative to the investor consensus at Steno Research.

• The Regional banking crisis is NOT systemic, and it will be contained within the US
• The Fed will cave into the yield curve and stop hiking by June the latest
• The USD will suffer as a consequence as other central banks will out-hike the Fed
• China is wide open, but the story is exhausted from a market perspective.

Let’s have a look at them one by one and discuss the latest developments. It is safe to say that I find a load of reasons not to believe the current consensus.

We find especially the complacency around the broader money developments (M2/M3) in USD, GBP and EUR alarming since this is the TRUE root cause for the deposit flight and yet we are stuck in a discussion on other less important technicalities around the banking system.

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