Our short and sweet observations from the Jackson Hole opening remarks from Jay Powell. To us, hopes of an explicit pause have been postponed further down the road after this speech. A few highlights: 1) Data dependency is still the name of the game - NO promises for...
Bank of Japan will meet later this week and Ueda provided some clarity on the prerequisites for a YCC hike earlier. Is a YCC-hike off the table near term? And could BoJ surprise with a deposit rate hike this week
When Fed Chair Powell goes on stage tonight we of course stay on the line for live coverage of the interest rate decision and the following speech. Get prepared and follow the meeting with us, as well as getting the best takeaways here on our live blog!
Powell is back as the hawk we knew from 2022, but the extreme data-dependency is volatility creating by design. One soft inflation and/or job report and we will back at where we were just a few weeks ago. Buckle up.
RBA echoed other major central banks by clearly stating that inflation has peaked. This is a potential interesting harbinger ahead of Powell’s appearance in the US congress
The Chinese politburo aims for 5% annual growth in 2023. This leaves room for an upside surprise from China for once. We have a big week ahead of us. Find our expectations here.
It is safe to say by now that Powell has been a key person behind orchestrating the coordinated global central bank message of “peak inflation”. The bar is VERY high to price the Fed more aggressively than now.
Inflation runs markets currently as it seems as if growth has become irrelevant for policy makers, but will such a narrative pass a reality test? I doubt it. Growth will re-enter the limelight soon!
I remain of the view that it is inadvisable to make large portfolio changes during Geopolitical turbulence. Markets remain lukewarm despite the Russian aggression, so let’s look at the medium-term.
