Something for your Espresso: Is Powell right?
Morning from Europe.
Jay Powell referred to anecdotal evidence when he said that the US economy was about to accelerate at the FOMC press conference on Wednesday. Judging from the details in the ISM Manufacturing report, it is arguably hard to disagree.
The orders to inventories ratio is now improving towards levels that would suggest headline activity printing above 52.5 in a quarter or so. Not too bad, and it is perfectly in line with our view that the Manufacturing cycle is bottoming.
Chart 1: The US economy is probably accelerating here
The US economy is probably accelerating. The ISM PMI defied weak seasonality and the orders to inventories. Will the NFP defy seasonality gravity today as well?