Will the UK inflation report surprise on the low side on Wednesday? Our models are very dovish compared to consensus. We also await the decision from the BoJ but find JPY to have entered a structural uptrend here.
Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!
The BoJ will have to revise the inflation forecasts UP again later this month ultimately signaling that inflation will be above 2% for the next two years. Global bond markets should start to care about the BoJ again!
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5 Things We Watch – Manufacturing, Natural Gas, JOLTS, BoJ & China
BoJ likely intervened yesterday for the first time in a year, the American labor market looks stronger than feared and PBoC is looking to cope with domestic capital flights. Read more in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
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5 Things We Watch – Fed overtightening, Curve steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China
Ahead of the CPI release tomorrow we zoom out to provide you with the bigger picture and what to watch out for in global macro over the next weeks.
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Something for your Espresso: The confusing flexibility of the BoJ
A weaker JPY paired with higher JGB yields and a steeper curve. The JPY markets are sending mixed signals but maybe the whole purpose of the BoJ policy was to leave markets uncertain on the direction of travel.
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Something for your Espresso: Powell is gaining confidence, while Lagarde is losing it..
The Fed is getting increasingly confident that they can orchestrate a soft landing as the recession is no longer a base-case for them. Meanwhile, ECB and Christine Lagarde are losing confidence by the week.
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5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit
It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?
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Something for your Espresso: Central bank bonanza week with pause all over it
The big three central banks meet this week and we find a 25bp hike given for both the Fed and the ECB with limited forward guidance due to a lack of updated projections. It will prove to be an outright shocker if the BoJ moves the needle this week.
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Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 more likely than <130 in USDJPY
With the recent move in swap rates and the JPY, we have once again looked into Japan to find out when BoJ will do something about their policy and if the Yen is a viable option for your portfolio. JPY looks more like a sell than like a buy here.
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Something for your Espresso: 1-1.5 years of inaction? Not so fast
The Bank of Japan left us in the dark on whether monetary policy is now on autopilot for 1-1.5yrs, while a committee figures out how to exit the YCC program. Changes to the statement suggests that the policy CAN be changed.
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Japan Watch #2: Ueda is under increasing pressure to act
The first meeting with Ueda at the helm takes place this week. The Bank of Japan is under increasing pressure to act and the Finance Ministry (and Warren Buffet) seems to be preparing for higher interest rates.
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Japan Watch: The Flight Back Home
Japan remains a MUST watch as a risk taker in the West. With the potential scrapping of the YCC policy and the recent recall of capital to domestic markets, could this be a potential time bomb for Western markets? Here is how we monitor the situation.
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Japan Watch – The YCC time bomb for Western Fixed Income
Japan is a MUST watch as a risk taker in the West as the potential scrapping of the YCC policy holds true time bomb potential for Western markets. Here is what is currently priced in and how to position for it.
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5 things we watch: Bank of Japan, the falling USD, Dr Copper, the ON RRP and China vs. India
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
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