The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
The macro regime model has gone from ALL-IN on risk to a much more moderate scenario as the liquidity tide is turning. Find the allocation thoughts here.
Manufacturing sensitive assets have generally been outperforming broad-market benchmarks over the past weeks, despite some signs that the manufacturing boom could be short-lived. Some markets have started to agree, lowering exposure in both commodities and cyclical FX.
With the rebound in manufacturing coming through, our energy bet has enjoyed the mix of greater demand and geopolitical tensions.
Solid numbers out of China over Easter solidifies the commodity case including in Energy. If China is actually moving, commodities remain too cheap.
The inflation divergence theme is growing in importance, while the Rest of the World is catching up (or down) to the US in terms of financial conditions. Here is how we position for it..
Procyclical tilt has taken a hit over the past days
The Li Keqiang Index witnessed its most robust monthly surge since 2005 but consumer confidence is rotten?
Understand the paradoxes of the Chinese consumer in this explainer.
We called out the cyclical rotation a couple of weeks ago, and while our trades have performed according to plan, we are starting to see signs of the trade getting too crowded to our taste.
The full Ifo report was released yesterday, and here is the summary with the most important charts from our models. Overall, there is not a lot of fuel to the reflation story in Germany.
This week we hone in on the consequences of the Ukraine’s successful attacks on Russian refiners and how to play it along with some thoughts on our profit taking in metal space as something BIG is cooking in China!
We see relatively soft numbers out of Germany and France, while Spanish numbers will look hot due to electricity VAT adjustments. June cut is ON..
China has been in the limelight recently, and the attention from clients match the evident rotation in managed positioning. While tremendously yielding, we’ve decided to de-risk in metals but keep overall cyclical exposure.
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
The mechanical adjustments are likely going to lead to a hawkish revision of the Norges Bank rate path tomorrow unless the subjective layer is used to send another signal. Risks tilted towards a hawkish take-away.
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
Market positioning is finally aligning with the trends highlighted in the past weeks, and commodity positioning is now almost outright bullish for cyclical metals, while cyclical equities are moving. Read how markets are positioned here.
We see UK CPI coming in soft relative to expectations and generally find the BoE to be priced too hawkishly compared to peers. Read along why here..
Commodities have broken out of recent price ranges left, right and center over the past 1-2 weeks and we have timed the entries well. Read along to find our top-picks in Commodity space right now.
We sum up a yuge week ahead in this brief and chart-heavy update on the big central banks. Where’s the value to be found in rates space this week?
The commodity cycle is healing, but overall trends are more lukewarm. Interesting whether this is the market sniffing out something related to the manufacturing cycle in China? Either way, we have been positioned appropriately.
2024 has been better than feared for the USD, with hotter inflation data and better economic conditions paving the way for a stronger dollar, but what happens if the Fed cuts into sticky (or even rising) inflation?
With a break-out from ranges in Copper, Silver and Oil, we look for clues as to whether the Chinese buying is behind the sudden emerging optimism in the commodity space.
How Germanys constitutional debt brake could hinder the green transition of Europe and leave Germany at the bottom of the leaderboard in the race towards fiscal deficits.
Long term inflation expectations are trading around 2.25-2.5 percent and yet there is a sentiment among the Average Joe that the cost of living is still high. It’s Vibeflation. So how to deal with this? Well, just cut rates!
Hot on the heels of today’s awaited US CPI report, we offer our rundown of the most noteworthy figures. Safe to say the Fed wasn’t helped along in achieving their target.
Hints of a BoJ hike in as early as March sent Nikkei 225 down, while China-proxies like Hang Seng and South Korea were bid. Will a move from BoJ wreak havoc with market positioning?
The Chinese moves toward larger fiscal deficits may be helpful for the energy- and industrial metal cases, but we still lack confirmation from the actual manufacturing cycle globally. Could the commodity complex be the macro case of 2024?
Was the sudden reacceleration in the owners equivalent of rent a one-off? This is the KEY question ahead of a report that brings soft food prices, soft car prices, soft goods prices and hot energy prices.
Signs of a cyclical re-acceleration
The cyclical rotation keeps rolling, and recent comments affirmed in our view that the Fed will allow the economy to reflate here. We caught on early and continue to reap great gains.
