Welcome to our new “The week at a glance” publication.

We will briefly guide you on our nowcasts and expectations for key events in the week ahead. Short and sweet as you know us!

This week we look at the US CPI report, ECB- and BoC meetings and Scandi inflation from Norway and Sweden.

Event 1: The US CPI report (Wednesday)

Steno Research (Headline 0.44%, Core 0.38%) vs consensus of 0.3% on both.

The US CPI report needs to deliver on the dovish side in services to print at 0.3% on the month as the consensus expects. We are honestly puzzled by the headline consensus as it will take a very soft print in food (home and out) to counter the rising retail gasoline prices.

The price of cars (both used- and new) will likely increase in March again, while goods-inflation will generally print a tad hotter than January and February. In other words, we need material dovish surprises in other shelter, transportation services or medical care services to get to 0.3% headline- and core inflation.

We see the odds strongly tilted towards a hawkish surprise. Especially on headline inflation.

Chart 1.a: Steno Research Nowcast for US CPI in March