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Great Game – Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?

In our weekly geopolitical overview, we cover Israel-Hezbollah tensions, attacks on a beach in Crimea and an exciting political week ahead.

Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game. We have a lot of current geopolitical events to cover, so let’s get to it!

Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?


Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border. The conflict escalated after a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli border town killed four civilians. In response, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage.

The conflict has seen daily exchanges of rocket fire and artillery, with both sides sustaining heavy losses. Hezbollah has threatened further attacks, while Israel has vowed to continue its defensive operations.

The US has moved a Carrier Task Force to the sea off Lebanon in an attempt to manage the situation.


There seem to be a growing sentiment inside Israel of “let’s get done with Hezbollah while we’re at it”. Tens of thousands of Israelis are displaced because of Hezbollah attacks, so even if opening another front might seem foolish, it’s a real concern for the Israeli government. Secondly, Netanyahu knows that he is most likely a spent force politically once the war ends and there is a limit to how long he can call the Gaza operation a war. He needs to present a victory or a new war, to put it like that.

Hezbollah is striking a delicate balance. They have seen Hamas and the Houthis take center stage in the Jihadi world and Hezbollah are losing credibility and status internally in Lebanon and in the Arab world unless they ramp up their attacks on Israel. On the other hand, they have much more to risk from provoking Israel than groups more distanced from the Israeli military such as the Houthis. Hezbollah has experienced head-on war with Israel before and are likely not too eager to repeat that.

What’s Next:

Currently, we are in a slowly escalatory cycle which has the potential to flame into an open war. On the other hand, neither side really has an interest in that and should be able to break the cycle at the current point. That’s what you might call a “game of chicken”. In such games, it’s normal for both sides to try and increase the pressure on the opponent to get them to cave in, but in the end I think the risk of an open-war with Israeli forces entering Lebanon is very low.

Attacks on Crimea


Ukrainian forces launched a missile strike on a beach in Yevpatoria, Crimea, an area under Russian control since 2014. The attack resulted in the deaths of at least 20 civilians and numerous injuries. Ukrainian military sources claimed the beach was being used as a base for Russian military operations, while Russia condemned the strike as a deliberate attack on civilians. Many sources suggest that the most severe civilian damage was in fact caused by malfunctioning Russian air defenses, although we are yet to confirm this.

Reports indicate that U.S. intelligence provided crucial satellite data to aid the targeting process, although official confirmation from Washington is lacking. This involvement has raised questions about the extent of U.S. support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

In our weekly geopolitical overview, we cover Israel-Hezbollah tensions, attacks on a beach in Crimea and an exciting political week ahead.

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