Welcome to this week’s Great Game, where we cover the geopolitical topics of the hour. We’re gradually changing the format of the Great Game series to cover more topics and give you direct advice and projections as well as clear directions on which geopolitical issues matter for your portfolio and which don’t. This week we’re still focused on the Middle East – most notably the Gaza conflict which is at the center of everything.

Main point:
I predict that Israel will be forced to accept cease-fire terms within the coming weeks. It will be a gradual step-by-step ceasefire including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. This is key to your portfolio since it will immediately affect oil prices and quickly also alleviate pressures on global shipping and freight rates.

Greek ship headed for Iran hit in the Red Sea

Houthi attacks on international shipping carry on with attacks on a Greek and a UK ship reported last week. The Greek ship was apparently headed for Iran, which would appear to be a mystery since Iran has been backing and directing the Houthis all along. However, it’s a mistake to think that the Houthis and other proxies are only doing exactly what Iran wants. They are independent groups with ambitious and sometimes trigger-happy leaders, so it’s not uncommon for them to carry out attacks and strikes that Iran isn’t happy about. That’s what happened in Jordan some weeks ago and that’s probably what happened here.

US peace efforts have hit the ground

The US has been working very hard to put together a peace plan for Gaza, but has so far failed. The strategy has clearly been to build a coalition including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but neither Hamas nor Israel have been ready to settle terms yet.