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Great Game – Why Putin fired Shoigu and Why Biden is going tough on China

Does the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu signal desperation or confidence from Putin? And why is Biden suddenly escalating the trade war with China?
2024-05-14
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/mikkel/" target="_self">Mikkel Rosenvold</a>

Mikkel Rosenvold

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Welcome to this week’s geopolitical update, the Great Game. This week we’re covering Putin’s surprise sacking of Defense Minister Shoigu as well as the ongoing global EV war.

Why Putin fired Shoigu

Situation:

  • Russian President Putin has replaced his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with former economic advisor and Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Beluosov.
  • Shoigu retains an important seat as Secretary of the Russian Security Council
  • Officially, Putin’s spokesman Peskov claims that the appointment of Beluosov is happening to strengthen the management and direction of the increasing Russian military budget and the increased role of the military in the society as a whole.
  • The sacking comes at a time when the Russian army is expanding the frontline with attacks north of Kharkiv and at the northeastern city of Sumy

Analysis: 

  • Even though Shoigu retains his spot on the Security Council, this is very clearly a dismissal. It’s standard procedure for Putin to put fired officials in such positions to avoid humiliation which could lead to dissent or defections
  • Beluosov is a bureaucrat/politician – not a military man. He has been a close ally and advisor to Putin, but his appointment to the top military job is surprising at war-time where most would expect a battle-hardened general to get the job.
  • Many ask if this is a desperate move or due to disappointment with the war effort. I think the opposite. I think

 

Does the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu signal desperation or confidence from Putin? And why is Biden suddenly escalating the trade war with China?

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