Yes – it’s that time again. At least our inbox tells us. We’re staring into another US government shutdown crisis. Meanwhile, we may be seeing some openings for peace in Gaza, which is frankly much more important for your portfolio. Here’s my take on things:

Another shutdown crisis? Really?

US Congress is confronting two major shutdown deadlines – March 1 and March 8. On each date a number of federal agencies and offices will shut down. Lawmakers passed a short-term funding bill in January, but are yet to come to terms on a long-term solution. Congress leadership was expected to announce a bipartisan bill on Sunday, but negotiations collapsed and now President Biden are getting involved in an attempt to breathe some life into the process that right now seems to have lost all momentum.

Democrats and Republicans are in disagreement over funding for Ukraine, but the main disagreements are really within the Republican party where the new speaker Mike Johnson is fighting to keep the party together. The political backdrop to all this is obviously the upcoming election cycle which has sharpened the rhetoric and determination on both sides. Many Democrats are facing left-wing “social democratic” primary opponents while many moderate Republicans are facing “MAGA” opponents for their seats and this pulls the parties apart on several issues.

The most likely outcome is