The JPY is once again suffering from a weak CNY, and the metals trade is not performing despite FX debasement risks in Asia. Have markets gotten tired of the co-ordinated “cry wolf” rhetoric from Asian monetary authorities?
Chinese Momentum: Driving Markets or a Crowded Consensus?
China’s vehicle of choice in achieving its growth targets has long been real estate. With RE still in shambles, will manufacturing be the stand in, and has the market in fact crowded out the China case?
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EM Cycle Watch: South Korea a good buy?
Amidst some EARLY resurgence in China and signs of cyclical rebound, South Korea looks increasingly compelling. Could this convergence of factors signal a strategic entry point into South Korea’s manufacturing and AI-focused market?
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EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?
The latest US CPI data clearly indicates that inflation in the US is not yet defeated. With interest rate cuts anticipated further down the line here is our perspective on EM’s
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EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the beast alive
With investor sentiment through the floor in China, we take a look at the policy tool kit for 2024. Is China set for a rebound or will the sentiment remain stuck in the abyss?
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EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling
After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality
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Macro Nugget: Why Argentina won’t dollarise
Massa takes the first round but war is not over. We provide our view on the state of affairs in Argentina from a risk-taking perspective
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EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?
This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
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EM BY EM #17 China: Real Estate Complex and the “phony” stimulus
In 2021, I took a bearish position in the Chinese real estate market. However, the scale of the repercussions stemming from the ongoing deleveraging process in Chinese real estate has raised our concerns. Despite this, we believe that the CCP will likely need to intervene in the near term to address the situation
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EM by EM #14 7 EM Charts for the “Central bank Bonanza”
We are back for another big Central Bank week. 7 charts we think are worth paying attention to in the EM space as DM central bankers approach their final hike
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Outside the Box #10 What if China favors bridges over credit cards once more?
The West sent checks, while China focused on supply-side policies in response to Covid. But what will Beijing do now?
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5 Things We Watch – Governor panel discussion, EU Fragmentation, Riksbank, EU Banks & The EM rate cycle
It’s Wednesday, and that calls for us to dissect 5 topics that we follow in Global Macro currently. What to expect from today’s panel discussion between governors? How is it going with the ongoing fragmentation of Europe? And will Riksbank hike 50bps like Norge’s bank? Find out here.
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EM by EM #3 – Copper comeback?
In Q1, we had a long position in copper. However, since our exit, industrial metals have experienced a reversal, and most of the gains YTD have been wiped out. But could the copper story have another leg to it? In this piece, we will share our perspective combining the macro with the development from the relevant EM frontlines.
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Asset Allocation Watch – How to exactly position for USD weakness?
Last week we released our first edition of the ‘Dollar O’ Meter’ which sat out to probe the USD and its relative strength (or weakness). Without giving too much away, we find conviction that further weakness in the USD is up ahead in the next few months. If we are correct, how should one then position for such a circumstance?
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