The Great Game is our weekly editorial on geopolitics and global conflict. The byline of the editorial is Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief strategy consultant at PwC and Danish Ministry of Finance.
This week’s The Drill will focus on the reflation story and how it is the growth narrative that is dominating the inflation narrative. Basically the growth impulse stories from the US and China are the loudest whilst Europe is dragging, but no reasons to go long just yet.
Oil markets are in free fall now as it seems like the Biden admin has begged Netanyahu not to escalate things ahead of the election.
China is getting slaughtered this morning as the “stimmie drug” is fizzling while geopolitical risk in crude is waning. We keep a negative bias on commodity markets as the China trade is fading.
It is a market on autopilot that buys Copper and the likes because China is handing out vouchers. We remain unconvinced of a China-fuelled commodity rally here. Here is why.
Our thoughts on the PBOC’s stimulus implementations along with thoughts on the situation in Lebanon.
Last week marked the largest week-over-week drop in freight rates since late 2022, as key factors driving previous rate increases are slowing down. With China facing ongoing economic malaise and global growth weakening, the future outlook for freight rates remains uncertain.
Crude prices haven’t responded to output delays as hoped, and we wonder whether that will prompt the alliance to change its strategy.
What is the path to peace in Ukraine and what might Zelenskyy’s “plan to end the war” entail?
Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics. This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.
What the U.S lacks in Eurovision, they make up for during the Democratic National Convention. But in the midst of the media-mayhem, were we robbed of economic policy?
Rundown of the week in geopolitical events most likely to impact your portfolio.
We take a closer look at the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East with tensions and market risks at very high levels
Here’s a quick rundown of the most important geopolitical risks right now!
Risk assessment of the situation in Lebanon and Venezuela
Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race. President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most predictable thing in a completely unpredictable race so far. Now, as we discussed yesterday, Kamala Harris is entering the race as an underdog, but a Trump landslide in November is far from a foregone conclusion. I would still put Kamala at around 30% chance of winning the White House – especially due to all the uncertainty of this election cycle. The next debate is not until September 10th. so even if polls don’t swing in Kamala’s favor, she still has that joker up her sleeve. Usually, we wouldn’t expect debates to swing elections massively, but one debate performance just killed the candidacy of an incumbent President, so never say never! Now, while we had some grasp on what a second term Biden or Trump presidency would look like, most investors are in the dark over what to expect should Kamala win in November. In this piece, That’s important for two obvious reasons – 1) what to plan for if she wins and 2) which sectors could see movement if/when polls temporarily or permanently swing in Kamala’s favor. So without further ado – here’s my five predictions on what Kamalanomics might look like. 1. A tourist at the helm The main point here is that Kamala is NOT an economics major and has very little experience in managing the economy. She is a lawyer and former Attorney General, […]
We cover the three recent elections and what they mean for investors and geopolitics
With Biden nosediving in polls, France’s far right party is surging in the First round of legislative elections. What will this mean for markets?
In our weekly geopolitical overview, we cover Israel-Hezbollah tensions, attacks on a beach in Crimea and an exciting political week ahead.
Tesla is emerging as the clear winner of the EU-China trade war so far – why is that? And why are markets so panicky over the French election?
How will the euro-sceptic parties wield their newly won political power over the next years? Why is EU entering the EV war and what might the effects of Indias current heatwave be?
We cover the Mexican election and market reactions, the initial effects of Trumps verdict and finally the fragile Gaza peace process
What to make of China’s drills off Taiwan and Israel’s standoff with Egypt?
We cover the four most important geopolitical topics of the past week – Iran, Ukraine, Israel… and Congo!
Does the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu signal desperation or confidence from Putin? And why is Biden suddenly escalating the trade war with China?
Do we have peace or don’t we? What going on in Gaza and what game is Israel and Hamas playing? Plus: What is the strategy behind Xi Jinping’s European tour?
With Biden catching up in polls, what effect could the “Hush Money” trial have on Trump’s campaign?
The US Congress has passed major new aid for Ukraine, but it might be to late. Here’s our assessment and thoughts on how you can prepare for when Ukraine loses
Undertanding Iran’s strike and what might come next – plus some potential solutions for the Red Sea crisis.
Read our analysis before panicking and be ready for markets to open on Monday
Are Israel and Iran headed for war? We give our analysis and paint out the most likely scenario.