Happy new year and welcome to the first edition of the Great Game in 2024! We will kick off the year with a look ahead at 3 potential shocks to global markets from geopolitics in early 2024. Sometimes the most important lesson from geopolitics is to forecast potential disturbances in global markets, so without further ado:

Taiwanese Election (January 13th)

The taiwanese Presidential election is upcoming and tensions are already brewing. The election will likely stand between the pro-independence DPP candidate Lai Ching-te and the moderate KMT Hou Yu-Ih and while none of them signal a sharp shift in rhetoric or approach vis-a-vis China, Beijing clearly doesn’t favor the current vice-president Lai Ching-te. Beijing refuses to co-operate with him on count of him being “separatist” and even if he has moderated his stances over recent years, Beijing will likely react very sharply to his election.

So next Saturday’s election is clearly one to watch for a potential exogenous shock to markets. Not so much the election in itself, but the Chinese reaction. If Lai is elected, I expect Beijing to react sharply both rhetorically and militarily. Let’s be clear – Beijing will not outright invade Taiwan or start a war, but if Lai ramps up independence rhetoric, I can’t rule out a partial naval blockade of Taiwan, which would be a huge escalation and a global shock. Even if I only rate this at 10-20% likelyhood, the effects on global markets would be extreme and you should have your eyes on Taiwan next weekend and be ready to react.

European Migration Crisis

Just as the EU ministers