The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
FED is pausing but EM’s are already fed up and the dynamics of the 2022-trade remains our frame of guidance. But what could turn the table?
With CPI coming in later today and markets not expecting further ECB rate hikes we question how the ECB stand in the coming months. See our morning thoughts below.
7.30 was the line in the sand but can the Chinese defend their thench? We find it unlikely. But the battleground is not a safe place yet
With all eyes on the ECB and President Lagarde today, it’s crucial to factor in yesterday’s US CPI data and the ongoing oil shortage as we delve into our morning analysis below.
The banking crisis theme seems to be losing steam in the media. But is it really over yet? 4 charts on the trouble
All eyes are on the Eurozone CPI next week as the USD keeps wrecking through global markets. How are traders positioned as we enter the last month of Q3? Read our takeaways below
The global macro environment remains tumultuous in 2023, with little consistency across regions and assets prices. Here are some morning charts and thoughts to start your Friday
Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
The US keeps performing while China is in damage control and Europe is looking to be on the doorstep of a crisis.
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
The intricacies of the US labor market make it challenging to derive coherent insights. To shed some light on our perspective, here are three charts that aid in elucidating our view
The Turkish central bank hiked the interest rates by 750 basis points against the market expectations of 200 bp underlying this month and both stocks & lira rallied on the back of it. Where is the Turkey case heading from here? Read our view here
We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
Bears have been in the front-seat this month just as we had forewarned. Now, it appears that the tough price action is beginning to have an impact on overall sentiment. Will it last?
All eyes are on Jackson Hole this morning as is ours. But if we look beyond Powell what is the temperature in equities and at the ECB this morning? Read below for context
Finance Journos are busy flying this week. But what is going on with BRICS & the FED? EM’s care more about the latter this week
Powell is getting ready for Jackson Hole just as the attention ought to be focused on The Hill as McCartney may be forced to kill the Treasury Put
The weakest are the most vulnerable: The Matthew principle is in full effect both among companies and consumers in this cycle
We are closing 2 trades today. Read below for context
Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context
In 2021, I took a bearish position in the Chinese real estate market. However, the scale of the repercussions stemming from the ongoing deleveraging process in Chinese real estate has raised our concerns. Despite this, we believe that the CCP will likely need to intervene in the near term to address the situation
We hoped for a momentary rebound yesterday but must concede to closing our RSPM exposures in the Materials space. The Chinese RE malaise hurt the momentum too much. We will consider re-entering when there is clarity around whether 7.30 holds in the line in USDCNY. Our fill levels will be updated shortly here.
China is in peril and we will be following the situation as it develops. Meanwhile, the US keeps performing and the Eurozone is still above water. Is the decoupling here?
The PBoC rate cuts are not a surprise to us as the pressures facing China are intensifying. But where does it leave monetary policy going forward?
A relatively strong week this one despite Xi keeps hunting us. The boomer trade has been doing bits along with the curve steepener. But we will probably be making changes soon. Read below for context
FED & ECB near peak policy rate and UST curve seems to be steepening. Meanwhile, the Chinese are still late with their stimulus package. Where does that leave EM FX? We give our general assessment here.
The CPI report today will reflect an equilibrium of countering trends: Energy is back in the limelight on both sides of the pond just about when the base effects are turning unfavorable
In this short note we go through why EU inflation is likely to get back to target faster than US inflation due to technical differences in the way of measuring inflation.
