Ultimately markets got the memo from the Fed. The rate hikes are not necessarily over, but they will not promise anything at this stage. USD bullish (again).
Macro Nugget: 3 Charts on US Labour market
The intricacies of the US labor market make it challenging to derive coherent insights. To shed some light on our perspective, here are three charts that aid in elucidating our view
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Services Week: Will Services now turn into the weakest link of the economy?
When input costs subside for Manufacturers but not for Service companies, the overall economic momentum moves in favour of the Manufacturers. This is most likely the juncture we are at.
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Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
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U.S Debt Watch: Do we need this conversation again?
Pheew… close call! The bipartisan debt ceiling bill saved the U.S from economic disarray. Now we can all take a well-deserved summer holiday and bask in the sunshine of the long-term financial stability ensured by responsible lawmakers who have no interest in short-term solutions nor gains. But no – not so fast! We still have a looming government shutdown to attend to.
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U.S Debt Countdown: Will A Deal Go Through Today?
Does Biden and McCarthy have the necessary votes to suspend the debt ceiling and save the U.S from default?
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EM by EM #5 Stairs up and elevator down in China?
As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position
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China Watch – How’s it going with that reopening?
The China play has thus far not been profitable but I refuse to back down on my underlining analysis- Yet some reconsiderations are in order and it might be the start of a larger reevaluation. But for now the course of the ship is intact
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EM by EM #4 – Argentina and the real de-dollarisation
In recent weeks, social media and leading financial media have been flooded with sensational articles about the dollar’s demise. In this piece, I will provide an analysis of the actual immediate obstacles facing the American dollar where USD hegemony is being undermined. Given the current US debt ceiling theater, one can scarcely think of a better point of reference than the debt default champion of the Western hemisphere: Argentina
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Something for the Espresso: PMIs to sum up the week
After a job claims report that was only slightly weaker than the consensus yesterday, our focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the PMI reports toda
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Something for your Espresso: Will anyone care about inflation?
The market is convincing itself that the hiking cycle is over in the US, but will anyone care about inflation today? Long gone are the calls for higher(er) for longer(er) and the curve is steepening fast.
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De-Coupling or Detente? The Future of US-Chinese trade in the balance
For years, the US have struggled to find their footing vis-a-vis the new Chinese threat. We have seen countless attempts at “strategic pivots” and contructive meetings, but it’s no wonder if the Chinese are left with a feeling of confusion. What do the US actually want? What will be the next steps in Bidens “de-coupling” from China?
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Something for your Espresso: Ueda- and inflation day!
Will the new BoJ governor rock the boat? Quotes from a source close to Amamiya would suggest as much, while we look forward to the US CPI report today.
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Good Morning America: Inflation is OVER in the West
We now officially have POSITIVE real Fed Funds rates in the US, while we remain on inflation watch in Spain on Monday. European inflation is falling apart as well.
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The Great Game #10 – Qurans for Fighter Jets?
Who would have thought that a single Danish alt-right incel burning a book in Stockholm would have geopolitical consequences? Well, that is 2023 for you!
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The Great Game #9 – Will China attack Taiwan?
Will China attack Taiwan? What is the Davidson Window? When will it all go down? Read our take and prediction here
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U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off
On Thursday, the U.S. hits its 31.4 trillion-dollar debt limit. If Congress fails to raise or suspend the limit, the U.S. risks defaulting on its foreign debt with global economic ramifications. So naturally, Steno Research is launching a new ‘U.S. Debt Countdown’ watch series to keep tabs on when the U.S reaches the magic ‘X Date’: the day when The Treasury runs out of ‘extraordinary measures’ to postpone the worst-case scenario, and must succumb to default.
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Inflation watch #1: 8 charts on slowing inflation and why it’s not a buy signal
US CPI printed at 7.1% – smack dab at our forecast – but it is not necessarily a signal to buy risk assets. Margins increased when inflation was hot. The opposite will happen now.
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Stenos Signals #4 – Biden owns a printer, while Powell owns a flat iron
I remain of the view that it is inadvisable to make large portfolio changes during Geopolitical turbulence. Markets remain lukewarm despite the Russian aggression, so let’s look at the medium-term.
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Stenos Signals #2 – Why the Pandemic is about to get disinflationary
The current inflation is mainly a result of lagged consequences of the pandemic trends, but as these trends are about to reverse, we may experience the disinflationary part of the pandemic soon.
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