The market is convincing itself that the hiking cycle is over in the US, but will anyone care about inflation today? Long gone are the calls for higher(er) for longer(er) and the curve is steepening fast.
De-Coupling or Detente? The Future of US-Chinese trade in the balance
For years, the US have struggled to find their footing vis-a-vis the new Chinese threat. We have seen countless attempts at “strategic pivots” and contructive meetings, but it’s no wonder if the Chinese are left with a feeling of confusion. What do the US actually want? What will be the next steps in Bidens “de-coupling” from China?
Something for your Espresso: Ueda- and inflation day!
Will the new BoJ governor rock the boat? Quotes from a source close to Amamiya would suggest as much, while we look forward to the US CPI report today.
Good Morning America: Inflation is OVER in the West
We now officially have POSITIVE real Fed Funds rates in the US, while we remain on inflation watch in Spain on Monday. European inflation is falling apart as well.
The Great Game #10 – Qurans for Fighter Jets?
Who would have thought that a single Danish alt-right incel burning a book in Stockholm would have geopolitical consequences? Well, that is 2023 for you!
The Great Game #9 – Will China attack Taiwan?
Will China attack Taiwan? What is the Davidson Window? When will it all go down? Read our take and prediction here
U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off
On Thursday, the U.S. hits its 31.4 trillion-dollar debt limit. If Congress fails to raise or suspend the limit, the U.S. risks defaulting on its foreign debt with global economic ramifications. So naturally, Steno Research is launching a new ‘U.S. Debt Countdown’ watch series to keep tabs on when the U.S reaches the magic ‘X Date’: the day when The Treasury runs out of ‘extraordinary measures’ to postpone the worst-case scenario, and must succumb to default.
Inflation watch #1: 8 charts on slowing inflation and why it’s not a buy signal
US CPI printed at 7.1% – smack dab at our forecast – but it is not necessarily a signal to buy risk assets. Margins increased when inflation was hot. The opposite will happen now.
Stenos Signals #4 – Biden owns a printer, while Powell owns a flat iron
I remain of the view that it is inadvisable to make large portfolio changes during Geopolitical turbulence. Markets remain lukewarm despite the Russian aggression, so let’s look at the medium-term.
Stenos Signals #2 – Why the Pandemic is about to get disinflationary
The current inflation is mainly a result of lagged consequences of the pandemic trends, but as these trends are about to reverse, we may experience the disinflationary part of the pandemic soon.