Ueda giving an exclusive interview for the first time since April trying to talk up the JPY but will he succeed? We doubt it. The global steepener pressure remains intact.
Our monthly update on our asset allocation framework is out. We track down liquidity, inflation, and growth in all major economies. Inflation is currently stealing the show as liquidity remains wobbly. Remain long the disinflation theme.
We expect the Fed to deliver the last hike in this cycle, while the ECB is likely to deliver a dovish hike on Thursday. A big week ahead for central banks!
The Bank of Japan left us in the dark on whether monetary policy is now on autopilot for 1-1.5yrs, while a committee figures out how to exit the YCC program. Changes to the statement suggests that the policy CAN be changed.
Another strong IFO report from Germany on the surface of it, but is the European economy close to rolling over from a momentum perspective? Let’s have a look at the details.
The inflation report made for benign reading for monetary policy doves as a slightly more broad-based disinflation picture is starting to emerge. Will the Fed acknowledge the trend and pause in May? We think so.
Japan remains a MUST watch as a risk taker in the West. With the potential scrapping of the YCC policy and the recent recall of capital to domestic markets, could this be a potential time bomb for Western markets? Here is how we monitor the situation.
We have been up early to watch the hearings in Japan, but very little new was brought to the table. Here are the take-aways from the hearings in Japan.
Japan is a MUST watch as a risk taker in the West as the potential scrapping of the YCC policy holds true time bomb potential for Western markets. Here is what is currently priced in and how to position for it.
Is Kazuo Ueda another trial balloon from the Japanese government or is this a confirmation that politicians seek a break-up with the ultra-loose policy of Kuroda?
5 things we watch: The cyclical upswing, energy inventories, the BoJ governor, higher for longer and the consumer
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
The RBA echoed rhetoric from other central banks and will frontload a few hikes while assessing the “extent” of damage done to the economy of former lags. The question is now if Powell rocks the boat on the coordinated central bank rhetoric today.
It is a BIG week in Japanese central bank history with widespread speculation of another increase to the trading range of 10yr JGBs in the yield curve control program. More than 35 bps are priced in, but will BoJ fail to deliver?