With central banks on duty again this week, we share our thoughts on rate decisions, updated projections and how to play it, before the meetings. Enjoy
US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?
Treasuries have tumbled as 10- and 30-year yields touched their highest in 16 years. Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps steaming ahead. Is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds or will supply surmount demand, and can the USD extend its streak of strength?
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Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity
Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what’s on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet… Read this week’s Macro Nugget below
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EM by EM #19 The Simsek Effect kicking in?
The Turkish central bank hiked the interest rates by 750 basis points against the market expectations of 200 bp underlying this month and both stocks & lira rallied on the back of it. Where is the Turkey case heading from here? Read our view here
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Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
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EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg
Finance Journos are busy flying this week. But what is going on with BRICS & the FED? EM’s care more about the latter this week
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China Watch: The People’s Bank Pickle – is 7.30 the line in the sand?
The PBoC rate cuts are not a surprise to us as the pressures facing China are intensifying. But where does it leave monetary policy going forward?
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EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts
FED & ECB near peak policy rate and UST curve seems to be steepening. Meanwhile, the Chinese are still late with their stimulus package. Where does that leave EM FX? We give our general assessment here.
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FX Watch: Everything that matters for EUR/USD is natural gas
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
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Portfolio Watch: Surfing the boomer wave
BoJ’s decision is of course the big talking point for markets this week. Our book keeps up despite some impact from Ueda’s decision- but what will it mean and how will we trade it in the coming weeks? Read our view below
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Portfolio Watch #1 – Not your rookie market
As we close out our first week with a live portfolio, we are excited to introduce our new weekly watch piece, providing a comprehensive summary of our trading week. Every Friday, we will release this publication, and we extend a warm welcome to you all in this premiere edition!
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EM by EM #6 – is Brazil still attractive?
Having commenced this series with a bullish perspective on Brazil, it has now been approximately two months since my initial analysis. As I reassess the situation, I contemplate whether the trade is losing momentum or if there are still untapped profits to be seized.
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Something for your Espresso: No food for 50bp in meeting minutes
A few participants favoured a 50 bp hike at the last meeting, but the overwhelming majority backs a strategy where a slowing pace allows the Fed to gauge the extent of hikes needed. Forget about 50bps in March.
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Steno Signals #24 – Bipolar China
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
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Steno Signals #21 – 3 reasons why everyone, Zuckerberg, me, and their dogs turn into idiots when rates are 0%
In my base-case, we are going to see a double-top inflation picture, but I sincerely hope that we don’t resummon our inner financial illiterates, if rates drop towards 0% due to temporary disinflation
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Steno Signals #19 – 1, 2, 3, Central bank panic
Is BoE the patient zero in the fight against bond vigilantes? More panic could be upcoming from other central banks soon as real rates are shooting for the stars
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