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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Ethereum's market outlook is highly bullish following the approval of its spot ETFs, expected to attract $15 to $20 billion in net inflow within a year, despite initial outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. With a friendlier regulatory environment and unique attributes like deflationary supply and staking rewards, Ethereum's price is projected to reach $6,500 by October. The ETH/BTC ratio is anticipated to hit at least 0.065 later this year.
2024-05-24

Indeed, this has been a remarkable week.

In last week’s Crypto Moves #28, we noted that the tight race between President Biden and Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election, along with Trump’s unexpected pro-crypto stance, might push Biden to publicly support the crypto industry. This move would aim to attract the growing number of pro-crypto voters. We suggested that urging the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve an Ethereum spot ETF would be an ideal opportunity for Biden to demonstrate his genuine commitment to the industry.

On Monday, rumors began to circulate that the SEC was preparing to approve an Ethereum spot ETF. In a Tuesday Crypto Nugget, we detailed how this information emerged on Monday. Consequently, we raised our estimate of the likelihood of Ethereum ETF approval this year to 95% from 60%.

Over the past few days, it has become increasingly clear that the SEC was indeed on the verge of approving the Ethereum spot ETF applications, as more amended 19b-4 forms were submitted by issuers.

This evening, it became official. The SEC approved the Ethereum spot ETFs, specifically seven of them. The SEC approved the 19b-4 forms for the Ethereum spot ETFs, and now we are just waiting for the S-1 forms to be ready, which will allow trading of the ETFs to begin.

For context, when the SEC approved the 19b-4 forms for the Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, the S-1 forms were ready within a few hours, leading to the ETFs launching the next day. We expect the S-1 forms for the Ethereum ETFs to be ready and effective within the next few weeks, allowing for a quick launch. With the approval of the 19b-4 filings for the Ethereum ETFs, it is now a question of “when” not “if” the Ethereum ETFs will start trading.

Besides, President Biden and his administration’s newfound support for the crypto industry benefits more than just the Ethereum spot ETFs. On Wednesday, the U.S. House approved the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, also known as the FIT21 bill. The bill passed with 279 votes in favor, including 71 Democrats and 208 Republicans, while 136 voted against it, with 3 Republicans and 133 Democrats opposing.

Ethereum’s market outlook is highly bullish following the approval of its spot ETFs, expected to attract $15 to $20 billion in net inflow within a year, despite initial outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. With a friendlier regulatory environment and unique attributes like deflationary supply and staking rewards, Ethereum’s price is projected to reach $6,500 by October. The ETH/BTC ratio is anticipated to hit at least 0.065 later this year.

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