Our models hint of a HUGE increase in liquidity in January due to issuance and outflows from the ON RRP facility, which might provide some fuel for the soft landing rally in equities and bonds. See what our Asset Allocation tool suggests for the month ahead here.
We are currently “riding” a few of the positive impulses from lower input prices over the past year, but the impulses for 2024 do not look good and the positivity is likely going to be short-lived with rates volatility back.
Markets have acted out of sync with fundamentals for a while, but can the latest weakness across most markets be explained by developments in either liquidity, inflation, or growth?
Each month we assess the macro environment based on liquidity, inflation and growth models. Our models were right that inflation, growth and liquidity would all drop in June, but for July we see a possible slight uptick in growth, while inflation and liquidity will continue down.
Follow along as we keep you updated on our live portfolio and how we view the world allocation-wise every week!
Bullish price action and the soft-landing narrative is still roaring in markets, and we thus wonder whether It’s just the AI bonanza that’s driving market sentiment, or if the big players have actually switched their views. We take a look at institutional positioning and fund flows in this week’s edition.
Our monthly update on our asset allocation framework is out. We track down liquidity, inflation, and growth in all major economies. Inflation is currently stealing the show as liquidity remains wobbly. Remain long the disinflation theme.
Welcome to our monthly update of our Macro Regime Model, which provides a forward-looking guidance into tactical asset allocation. The “QE-like” environment that we predicted for March proved spot on, but partly for the wrong reasons. Will the QE-vibes continue?
February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.
Our macro regime indicator is based on liquidity, inflation and growth, which are the three most important tactical asset allocation variables. Here is how we have built the framework and what to expect from it in the coming months.