Yellen holds the keys to an early end to QT. At the surface, she holds all the incentives to get the QT tapering process started sooner rather than later. Will it be reflected in the QRA details tomorrow?
The quarterly refunding report will likely allow the Fed to be hawkish for longer as the liquidity outlook is decently benign, while the bond-zooka was avoided (for now). Find the details here.
The Bank of Japan opens the door for >1% 10yr bond yields alongside a large revision of inflation forecasts and yet the JPY weakens again – exactly as we anticipated. Meanwhile, the US Treasury issuance bazooka was nowhere to be seen, or was it?
After a series of eventful days on Capitol Hill, we present our key takeaways below. We remain committed to covering and sharing our perspective as the situation continues to evolve.
The Bank of Japan has fueled a global curve steepening and the US Treasury is forced to emphasize the trend with substantial ramifications for liquidity, rates, FX and equities. Here is how we play it!
The market struggles with duration issuance as the positioning is already loaded with bonds, while the BoJ keeps weakening the JPY (on purpose) as they continue to crowd out investments.
It is a BIG week in Japanese central bank history with widespread speculation of another increase to the trading range of 10yr JGBs in the yield curve control program. More than 35 bps are priced in, but will BoJ fail to deliver?