Shipping Watch: No news is bad news (for inflation)
Headlines in the beginning of 2024 were dominated by shipping and logistic troubles but over the last months that has almost died completely down. With “no news” we continue to see spill-overs to goods inflation in coming months.
Take aways:
- In general freight rates have been falling since Jan high but still remain some 50% above 2023 levels
- No spillovers to goods inflation .. yet
- The Houthis are the key in the Red Sea.. our take on the outlook
- No news is bad news (for inflation)
The shut down in the Red Sea by the Houthis sent the freight markets into a frenzy but ever since its peak in January rates have been tumbling and now sit some 50% above 2023 mean levels. An improvement? Yes. But definitely not something to start cheering about.
Chart 1.a: Freight rates tumbling since January
Headlines in the beginning of 2024 were dominated by shipping and logistic troubles but over the last months that has almost died completely down. With “no news” we continue to see spill-overs to goods inflation in coming months.
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