Happy Sunday from Copenhagen after the atrocious assassination attempt in Pennsylvania late Saturday.

Trump was apparently struck by some fragments but managed to raise his fist and greet his supporters in a strong show of defiance as he was escorted off the stage.

This incident will undoubtedly dominate the campaign in the coming days and weeks, transforming his appearance at the upcoming Republican Convention into a near-messianic event.

Expect Trump’s polling numbers to improve even further, potentially to a level where it seems futile for Democratic hopefuls to try to take over the sinking ship from Biden.

The question is now whether it will impact markets and the economy significantly.

The last assassination attempt we can draw lessons from is the 1981 attempt on Reagan. Back then, EURUSD tanked 3%, rates jumped 60bps, and equities stayed flat over the following three weeks. I’d bet on a similar trend here, assuming it has any impact at all.

In the article below, we dive into potential market movements under a Trump presidency and the macro momentum leading up to the election.

Chart 1a: Trump victory is a clear base-case

Chart 1b: Market moves around Reagan’s assassination attempt